On Wednesday, Oakland Raiders head coach Jon Gruden revealed that LT Kolton Miller, the team's 2018 first-round draft pick, wasn't his first choice.
Jon Gruden said he wanted to take Derwin James in the first round, but unfortunately they took a safety in the first round in 2016 (Karl Joseph) and one in the second round (Obi Melifonwu) in 2017. The Raiders selected LT Kolton Miller two picks before James in this year’s draft.
— Eric Williams (@eric_d_williams) October 3, 2018
Assuming that general manager Reggie McKenzie made the final call, the sunk cost fallacy has claimed another victim. Because Oakland has invested two high picks in the same position over the past few years, they decided to pass on a significantly better prospect. Both Joseph and Melifonwu may have been solid players entering the league, but James is on a different level.
A solid run-stopper, Karl Joseph was selected 14th overall in 2016, three spots ahead of fellow safety Keanu Neal, who made the Pro Bowl with Atlanta last season. After starting 24 games over the past two years, Joseph has played a total of only 11 defensive snaps through the first four weeks of the 2018 season.
Obi Melifonwu was drafted 56th overall in 2017. At 6'4″ 225lbs, a 44″ vertical, and 4.4 speed, he presented the ideal prototype of a modern NFL safety from a physical perspective. However, he was incredibly raw, and would need plenty of development before being able to make an impact.
Unfortunately, he struggled through injuries in his rookie year, logging five tackles in only five games. Those injuries persisted throughout the offseason, and Melifonwu was waived by the Raiders on August 23rd, which is incredibly rare for a second-round pick. He was not claimed by another team and is currently on Oakland's injured reserve.
So in hindsight, the presence of Joseph and Melifonwu should not have prevented the Raiders from going with James. He was hailed as a generational talent, with the size, athleticism, and versatility to play nearly anywhere on defense. He was consistently mocked in the top 10 of draft predictions, so it's easy to understand Gruden's interest when he was on the board at 15. James went two picks later to the Los Angeles Chargers, and has been one of the best safeties in the league thus far.
Oakland decided to strengthen their offensive line, and went with UCLA's Miller, which surprised many people. Miller had the physical traits at 6'9″ 310lbs, but like Melifonwu, he was incredibly raw. Most draft analysts pegged him as a late first-early second-round pick, but the Raiders saw something in him and made him a top-15 pick.
Miller may not be playing at James' level right now, but he has been very good. He surprised many by earning the starting left tackle position over three-time Pro Bowler Donald Penn, who was moved to the right side and is now on IR.
Miller had some trouble with the Browns star pass rusher Myles Garrett, but there aren't many offensive lineman who won't have issues trying to block him. Miller has plenty of potential and looks like a good pick, even if his coach wasn't 100% convinced at the time.
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