Slovenia followed the script in their first game, failing to control the ball for most of the game but playing good enough defense to get the draw. Meanwhile, Serbia gave England a scare in their opening match. Slovenia is making just their second trip to the Euro tournament and has Denmark’s number after finishing above them in their qualifying group. Serbia has fallen off over the past few years, failing to make the tournament in 2021 and finishing second to Hungary in qualifying. It is time to continue our Euro 2024 odds series with a Slovenia-Serbia prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Slovenia’s opening game started poorly when Christian Eriksen opened the scoring 17 minutes into the game. Slovenia held on for the remainder of the game, refusing to fall out of their structure until it paid off with a 77th-minute goal from Erik Janza. They are now in the driver’s seat to guarantee advancement to the knockout stage if they can upset Serbia in this game.

Serbia allowed an early 13th-minute header from Jude Bellingham, which looked to be the beginning of an onslaught on the weak Serbian backline. Serbia didn’t back down, as they out-chanced England for the remainder of the game and nearly split the time of possession.

Here are the 2024 Euros odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2024 Euros Odds: Slovenia-Serbia Odds

Slovenia: +377

Serbia: -120

Draw: +240

Over 2.5 goals: -105

Under 2.5 goals: -135

How to Watch Slovenia vs. Serbia

Time: 9 AM ET/6 AM PT

TV: FS1, TSN

Stream: (Click Here for Free Trial)

Why Slovenia Will Win

Serbia relies on high chaos and events in their matchups to steal victories. The Serbians will sacrifice defensive play to increase their offensive output, but it doesn’t always work out. They averaged just 1.51 expected goals/90 in qualifying. Benjamin Sesko could have a field day against Serbia, as the RB Leipzig striker has 11 goals in his last 13 matches before the tournament began. Serbia allows the second-most counterattacking shots/90, and their chaotic style could free up Sesko.

Why Serbia Will Win

Serbia has a distinct advantage they can exploit against Slovenia when looking at the analytics from qualifying. Slovenia’s defense struggled to defend balls coming into the box, allowing 5.35 accurate crosses/90, the second-highest mark in the field. Serbia didn’t have much success offensively in qualifying, but one area they excelled was with crosses, as they had the second-most accurate crosses and third-best completion rate.

Serbia is one of the weakest defensive teams in the tournament, as they get exposed by teams in transition. They allowed the second-most counterattacking shots/90 in qualifying. Slovenia has a good striker in Benjamin Sesko, but they don’t have a great transition offense. Slovenia is more effective from set pieces against a weak qualifying group. The Serbians are more experienced and equipped to gameplan against the set pieces.

Final Slovenia-Serbia Prediction & Pick

Serbia’s performance against England gave no reason to believe they can’t defeat Slovenia handily in this game. Serbia deserved to draw England at the very least and have a lot of edges over Slovenia. The biggest is their ability to generate offense from crosses. Slovenia’s defense is one of the worst in the field at allowing accurate crosses into the box, while Serbia is one of the best at crossing. Serbia will struggle to score against teams who defend the air well like we saw when they couldn’t find the equalizer against England, but that won’t be the case here.

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Final Slovenia-Serbia Prediction & Pick: Serbia ML (-120)