Ranked 5th nationally, Rick Barnes and the Tennessee Volunteers travel to Lexington to take on John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats in this top-10 SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Tennessee-Kentucky prediction and pick.

Losing two of their last three, John Calipari and his Wildcats are looking to bounce back in a big way on Saturday. Kentucky has played in two overtime games in SEC play and they have lost both. The last time Kentucky was coming off an overtime loss at home, they drilled Mississippi State 90-77. Both DJ Wagner and Justin Edwards were out last game and have been deemed ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s games. Monitoring their injury situations will be crucial with this pick. 

Also coming off a loss, Rick Barnes and the Volunteers need a win if they want to keep pace with Alabama atop the SEC standings. Led by All-American candidate Dalton Knecht, Tennessee is going to need the supporting cast to step up and produce on the road. This will be the only time Tennessee is the underdog until they visit Tuscaloosa in March.

Both teams lost looking ahead to this matchup, will Kentucky’s talent shine through or will Tennessee’s physicality be the difference?

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Tennessee-Kentucky Odds

Tennessee: -1.5 (-104)

Moneyline: -111

Kentucky: +1.5 (-118)

Moneyline: -108

Over: 159.5 (-114)

Under: 159.5 (-106)

How to Watch Tennessee vs. Kentucky

Time: 8:30 pm ET/ 5:30 pm PT

TV: ESPN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Tennessee Will Cover The Spread/Win

First, the injuries to DJ Wagner and Justin Edwards have to be the biggest storyline in this one. While Edwards does some stuff well from the wing, Wagner is the real blow here. Kentucky is 0-2 without DJ Wagner allowing an average of 87 points. Without Wagner, Calipari is forced to play Reed Sheppard for the entire game. Sheppard’s defensive lapses have shown through in conference play but especially down the stretch against Florida. In a physical rock fight type of game Tennessee usually plays, Sheppard is going to be absolutely gassed if he has to play every minute again. 

Secondly, the Vols' two SEC losses have been against slow-tempo teams. South Carolina plays one of the slowest tempos in the nation while Mississippi State falls around the 200th range. Against teams that like to get out and run, Tennessee has clobbered. They beat Florida by 19 and Alabama by 20, but those were both at home. The point is Tennessee, whether home or away, would prefer to play a fast-paced team rather than a slow and physical team. 

Also, Tennessee has struggled against physically imposing offensive bigs. Guys like Zach Edey, Hunter Dickinson, Armando Bacot, and Tolu Smith got Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka into foul trouble. When Aidoo gets into foul trouble bad things happen for Tennessee. Thankfully, Kentucky does not go through the post to run their offense. Seven-footer Ugo Onyenso has earned the starter minutes at the five but he is more of a defensive rim protector than a back-to-the-basket offensive threat. Tre Mitchell at the four is much more of a perimeter stretch forward than a low post beast. This style of front-court is exactly what Tennessee likes to see. 

Why Kentucky Will Cover The Spread/Win

Initially, the power of Rupp Arena has to be recognized. Kentucky has not lost home games in three years. To add to the hype of this game, the Wildcats have not really played a big game at Rupp yet this year. Hosting Miami in late November or Mississippi State a few weeks ago have been their biggest games so far. The atmosphere and energy created by a top-five team coming to town adds a point or two on the spread for me. 

Additionally, Tennessee has not been an elite road team this year. The Volunteers are 2-1 in true SEC road games. They easily beat Vanderbilt but pulled off a crazy comeback at Georgia and lost at Mississippi State. Had Dalton Knecht not exploded the final ten minutes against Georgia, we would be looking at a team that is 1-2 on the road in conference. 

Lastly, this is a Kentucky offense that just loves to play at home. The Wildcats have put up 90, 90, 105, and 91 in their four SEC home games. While Tennessee’s offense has improved from recent years, they are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season scoring just 59 at home against South Carolina. Kentucky plays a completely different style than South Carolina but the point still stands–Tennessee has shown signs of offensive inconsistency. 

Final Tennessee-Kentucky Prediction & Pick

In his post-game press conference, Rick Barnes was adamant about needing other offensive options to support Dalton Knecht. With the main area of focus for Tennessee being scoring the ball rather than finding a way to stop Kentucky’s offense, there should be plenty of scoring. 

If DJ Wagner is out, the margin of error for Kentucky starts to narrow. We could see a vintage Zakai Zeigler performance where he starts running once the whistle blows and does not stop moving until the game is over. With Sheppard drawing the Zeigler assignment defensively and being required to play every minute I start to worry. My official play will be on the over but if DJ Wagner is out, play Tennessee on the moneyline as well. 

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Final Tennessee-Kentucky Prediction & Pick: Over 159.5 (-114)