Ranked 5th nationally, Rick Barnes and the Tennessee Volunteers host Buzz Williams Texas A&M Aggies  in this primetime SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Texas A&M-Tennessee prediction and pick.

After losing to Texas A&M in College Station thirteen days ago, the Volunteers have rattled off three in a row. While they thrashed through Arkansas and Vanderbilt, Missouri pushed Barnes’ squad to the brink on Tuesday. A career-high from Tobe Awaka was a pleasant sight for Vols fans heading into a rematch against the glass cleaners of Texas A&M.

Speaking of glass, that is how fragile Texas A&M’s tournament hopes are after dropping three straight. It has been a frustrating, injury-ridden season for Buzz Williams and company. It is now desperation mode after what seemed to be a season-changing stretch beating Florida, Missouri, and Tennessee. 

The combination of star power and the physical nature of both teams will make for a fantastic game.

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Texas A&M-Tennessee Odds

Texas A&M: +10.5 (-102)

Moneyline: +480

Tennessee: -10.5 (-120)

Moneyline: -690

Over: 145.5 (-110)

Under: 145.5 (-110)

How to Watch Texas A&M vs. Tennessee

Time: 8:00pm ET/5:00pm PT

TV: ESPN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Texas A&M Will Cover The Spread/Win

Initially, there is a trend with the teams Tennessee has lost to in SEC play. South Carolina’s tempo ranks dead last at 14th, Texas A&M’s is 11th, and Mississippi State is 9th. Teams they have blown out have been fast-paced teams like Alabama (1st), Florida (4th), and LSU (3rd). Based on team build and style, Texas A&M is a good matchup for a team like Tennessee. The physicality of Solo Washington, Andersson Garcia, and Henry Coleman neutralize that advantage Tennessee normally has. 

In the first matchup Jonas Aidoo, Tobe Awaka, and Josiah Jordan James combined for just 15 points and 11 rebounds. This puts all the offensive pressure on Dalton Knecht, Santiago Vescovi, and Zakai Zeigler. For reference on the Aidoo/Awaka/JJJ numbers, the pair of Solo Washington and Andersson Garcia combined for 17 points and 24 rebounds. If the Aggie front court can replicate a performance like this, Tennessee’s paths to covering a three-possession spread begin to narrow.  

Finally, the main advantage for Texas A&M here is the false narrative that Tennessee has the motivational edge because it is a revenge game. While it may very well be a revenge game and in Knoxville, this is a veteran Texas A&M team quite literally playing for their postseason lives. For a team built on physicality and toughness, you can almost guarantee this squad is going to give it everything they have. A win here and the season is saved.

Why Tennessee Will Cover The Spread/Win

First, the way Texas A&M shot the ball in the first matchup will be tough to replicate. The Aggies went 11-28 (39.8%) from three for their best shooting performance of their SEC season. That was only the second time in SEC play that the Aggies made double-digit three-pointers. Wade Taylor IV started 5/5 from three (finished 5/11) for by far his best shooting night of February. This is a Texas A&M team that ranks 358th in three-point percentage. Additionally, the Tennessee defense as a whole has been elite at home in SEC play. Tennessee has only allowed over 70 points once in the conference at home. That one occasion was in a 91-71 blowout of Alabama who just so happens to have the nation’s best offense. 

Second, Texas A&M has not been good on the road in SEC play. The Aggies have a 2-4 record on the road including losses to Arkansas and Vanderbilt. The two best teams Texas A&M has played on the road have been Alabama and Auburn. They lost to Alabama by 25 and Auburn by 11. When playing quality competition in true road games the Aggies have not looked good. 

Last, we just saw Texas A&M have three different guys (Wade Taylor, Jace Carter, and Andersson Garcia) foul out against Arkansas. This is important because it is Andersson Garcia’s second straight game fouling out. Garcia has committed four or more fouls in four of the last seven games. He was instrumental in the Aggies' first win, putting up an insane 17 rebounds with nine of them being offensive. His foul trouble is a large concern here in a physical game, especially on the road.

Final Texas A&M-Tennessee Prediction & Pick

The emergence of Tobe Awaka seems like it will slow down against Texas A&M. The numbers look good but it was Vanderbilt and Missouri, two of the worst frontcourts in the conference. With how the Aggies shot in the first matchup, Tennessee would seem like the easy spot for the bounce back. But with Texas A&M losing three straight, the season is now on the line. This is one of the oldest rotations in the country without a single freshman and only one sophomore. Tennessee may win outright, but 10 points is too many for a team as desperate as the Aggies are.

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Final Texas A&M-Tennessee Prediction & Pick: Texas A&M +10.5 (-102)