The tension of the UFC 285 Main Card will be as high as ever when we take a look at this upcoming bout between ranked fighters in the Welterweight (170 lb) Division. No. 7 Geoff “Hands of Steel” Neal will square off against undefeated heavy favorite No. 9 Shavkat Rakhmonov. This fight has serious implications in the welterweight division and an undefeated record on the line. Check out our UFC odds series for our Neal-Rakhmonov prediction and pick.

Geoff Neal is 15-4 in his career and has gone 7-2 in the UFC. After making a name for himself on DWCS, Neal went on to win his first five consecutive fights in the UFC by using his heavy hands. After back-to-back losses against Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny, Neal got back on track and answered with back-to-back wins against Santiago Ponzinibbio and Vincente Luque. He's continuing to look like a future contender and will add a huge win to his resume with this one. Neal came in heavy by five pounds and will forfeit 30% of his purse. He stands 5'11” and has a 75-inch reach.

Shavkat Rakhmonov is undefeated in his career at 16-0 and won all four of his UFC fights thus far. Most notably, the lethal fighter from Kazakhstan has finished all 16 of his fights, half by knockout and half by submission with nine of those being in the first round. He's an absolute problem to deal with and has ran through his UFC competition rather easily. It'll be a huge test for him as he faces the powerful striking of Geoff Neal. Rakhmonov stands 6'1″ with a 77-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

UFC 285 Odds: Geoff Neal-Shavkat Rakhmonov Odds

Geoff Neal: +380

Shavkat Rakhmonov: -490

Over (1.5) rounds: -160

Under (1.5) rounds: +126

How to Watch Geoff Neal vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov

TV: UFC PPV

Stream: ESPN+ UFC PPV, UFC Fight Pass

Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT

*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Geoff Neal Will Win

Many are speculating that Geoff Neal is coming in to this fight heavy as a strategic tactic to outweigh Rakhmonov in the grappling. However, for a fighter in Neal that rarely misses weight, a miss like this could be indicative of a lingering injury or illness. He's had health issues in the past, so it may just be a way of avoiding the cut and preserving his body at his age. Nevertheless, Neal will have a real advantage on the feet with his crisp striking and heavy hands. He's not always throwing with full power, but a Geoff Neal shot at 60% feels a lot like 100% against most other guys.

Neal will have a willing dance partner in the stand-up with Rakhmonov. He'll have to choose his entries wisely and be conscious of the spinning attacks coming back his way. If he can bait Rakhmonov into striking with him, Neal will have a real opportunity to lands some big shots and test his opponent's chin. Rakhmonov hasn't faced a power punch like Neal before, so look for Neal to play into his strengths and look for an overhand right. Neal will be at his biggest disadvantage in the wrestling. He's had trouble getting up to his feet in the past, so he'll need to fight with a sense of urgency if he finds himself in bottom position.

Why Shavkat Rakhmonov Will Win

Rakhmonov is not like many prospects from his region in the sense that he mixes his striking in perfectly with his grappling. He's only 28 years old and has already carved out a reputation as the division's next boogey man. Neal will be more than willing to stand and bang with him, so look for Rakhmonov to be creative in keeping distance and using his kicks against Neal's front leg. If Rakhmonov finds himself in trouble, he can always rely on his deadly wrestling and squeeze his opponents into submission or ground-and-pound. He'll be slightly taller and longer than Neal, so look for him to use his leverage up against the cage and work the single-leg takedown.

We haven't seen many flaws in Rakhmonov's game thus far. He's been wildly dominant and eats any shots he takes very well. If he chooses to stand in the pocket and bang with Neal, he might get hit with a few shots and possibly rocked. Rakhmonov will look for the takedown consistently if he can't find the range against Neal. There, he has a massive advantage and can lock up a submission very quickly.

Final Geoff Neal-Shavkat Rakhmonov Prediction & Pick

This fight will still be close, but the weight miss for Neal is worrisome when considering a possible injury he's dealing with. Still, he's not one to back down from a fight and is fully confident in his ability to put away Rakhmonov. However, there's no reason to pick against Rakhmonov as he hasn't shown us many weaknesses in his game. The betting line is very telling; let's look for Rakhmonov to lock up a submission in this one.

Final Geoff Neal-Shavkat Rakhmonov Prediction & Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov (-490); by Submission (+200)