As the 2023 season has progressed for Arthur Smith and the Atlanta Falcons, the team has regressed. If you need a more prominent example of that, then look no further than their Week 15 loss to the Carolina Panthers.
In a 9-7 loss, it was perhaps the ugliest game of the year for the Falcons, a summation of the past 13 games this season. While the weather wasn't exactly cooperative, that really just falls as another excuse for this Falcons squad that has not come close to living up to expectations in Smith's third year.
No one expected this team to be vying as one of the NFC's best and playing in Las Vegas at the end of the year. But residing in the weak, unstable NFC South, put them in prime position to win the division, especially with a defense that was rebuilt through free agency and an offense that had been built through the draft in the past three years.
Starting at 2-0 was a promising start, and then the Falcons went 2-6 over the next eight games before their much-needed bye week where decisions at quarterback would be addressed—a common theme throughout this 2023 season.
Arthur Smith hasn't had a reliable quarterback in Atlanta
It's been painfully obvious what the problem is for this year's Falcons team, as it's been written all over Smith's face… literally. The question mark heading into the year was always Desmond Ridder, the second-year quarterback out of Cincinnati. The third-rounder had limited playing time of just four games in 2022, replacing Marcus Mariota, who likewise couldn't facilitate the offense last season.
Yet, even now with Ridder behind center, the same ineptitude persists at quarterback. Therefore, the onus falls squarely on Smith, who is a former offensive coordinator.
Perhaps that is somewhat unfair, but the league itself is unfair. Every team wants a franchise quarterback, yet only a select number of teams actually have that. The Falcons aren't one of them, in case you haven't figured that out yet. Drafting Ridder in the 2022 NFL Draft was always going to be a reach, with the hope that Smith could work some of his offensive magic he gave Ryan Tannehill while he was with the Tennessee Titans. After all, that's what led Arthur Blank and the Falcons to hiring Smith.
But nothing has worked at quarterback since Smith's arrival, outside of Matt Ryan's final season with the team, and even then, you're talking about a player that was in the twilight of his career. I always said that Smith was in one of the worst positions in the NFL for a head coach. He was brought in when the team was financially burdened due to salary cap issues, which they didn't crawl out of until this offseason, entering Smith's third season. But after that, it was always going to be about the quarterback, or lack thereof. That's why the Falcons so desperately went after Deshaun Watson before he was eventually traded to the Cleveland Browns. Smith knew even then that without a reliable quarterback, he would be without of a job.
Have the Falcons missed opportunities in past drafts for a quarterback?
But ironically, the Falcons have been just “good enough” to keep themselves out of a high enough draft pick to get themselves a quarterback. In his first two seasons, Smith got the Falcons to identical 7-10 records. While they have focused on offense in the last three drafts, drafting No. 4 and No. 8 overall twice, none of those have been for a quarterback. However, outside of this year's draft, there has been a major drop-off in talent with quarterbacks coming out of college.
When the Falcons chose Kyle Pitts in 2021 at No. 4, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance were the top 3 picks. Justin Fields was the next quarterback taken at 11. Only one of those has panned out so far in Lawrence. In 2022, the first quarterback off the board wasn't taken until the 22nd pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers in Kenny Pickett. Ridder was actually the second quarterback taken in that year's draft in the third round at No. 74.
In the 2023 Draft, there were much more promising prospects in Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Anthony Richardson, all of whom were taken within the first four picks. There were rumors that the Falcons could have traded up to get one of the three, but nothing ever occurred. So, yeah, some of this is just plain ole bad luck for Smith, which could give reason for him to stay through the 2024 season. The problem that puts Smith in a position to be fired is that the Falcons do nothing good on offense, which is Smith's specialty.
Arthur Smith has yet to fix the offense and Desmond Ridder
Currently, they're 26th in points per game (18.4), 19th in yards per game (327.2), 23rd in passing yards per game (200.8), and are averaging 1.5 giveaways per game, ranked 22nd in the league, per Team Rankings. Their running game isn't terrible when it can get going, but due to their lack of a passing game, the offense often becomes one-dimensional, resulting in a lack of points scored.
I'm sure Smith's offense is majorly handcuffed thanks to Ridder's inabilities. But that has been a theme since Smith joined the Falcons, where it seems he just can't get any sort of reliable production out of his quarterbacks. Even this season, Smith has been like Michael Scott going back and forth on having a vasectomy—snip-snap, snip-snap, snip-snap—being indecisive between Ridder and Taylor Heinicke as his starting quarterback. And for him and Falcons fans watching this horrendous offense, it probably feels like the procedure, particularly after another Ridder turnover.
Ridder has 10 interceptions and 11 fumbles this season, and what's worse is that five of those turnovers are in the red zone, according to Scott Blair on the Falcons website. One of those came in the game against the Panthers on Sunday. Ridder threw possibly one of his worst interceptions of the season, where if the Falcons would have scored—a field goal or touchdown—it would have probably put the game away, as points were scarce all day.
Again, perhaps it's unfair to say that Smith should be fired after just three seasons. But is it fair to this franchise that hasn't been to the postseason since 2016? Is it fair that this offense has yet to hit any sort of stride over the last three seasons with now three first-round skill players? Granted, the most important position is the weakest, but what could presumably cost Smith his job is that while not having a reliable quarterback is a great excuse, there are plenty of other excuses that point to this team should be having decent success.
Again, this division is easily winnable. Yet, the Falcons have blown late leads against two of their division rivals over the last two weeks, one from a Panthers team that had won just one game all season. The biggest flaw, however, is that Smith, as an offensive coach, hasn't successfully built his side of the ball during his tenure. That's what will earn him his pink slip.
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