Projecting statistics for a rookie quarterback that projects as the long-term starter is a tough thing to do, but extremely difficult for a rookie like Zach Wilson. QBs go to die with the New York Jets, and while the former BYU product has the skill set to buck that trend, the second overall selection from this year’s NFL Draft faces an uphill battle in making an early impact on the misfortunes of the Jets alongside first-year head coach Robert Saleh.
Surrounding Wilson is a rag-tag group of offensive weapons – he also becomes the second rookie QB to have a high selection used on a running back, as UNC’s Michael Carter was brought in to fit the same timeline of development as Wilson and jumpstart their postseason chances
With the reins having been turned over to the Buffalo Bills to lead the AFC West, the Jets are simply just needing to take things one at a time – and their first step needs to be keeping their heads above water.
Zach Wilson is this franchise’s next opportunity at a life raft, as the maligned organization can throw its weight into the rookie’s shoulders in hopes of him finally making them relevant. While that certainly is a big and mostly unrealistic (see Sam Darnold) ask, they wouldn’t have chosen him over both Trey Lance and Justin Fields at number two overall.
Expectations for Wilson and this Jets team should both be realistic and high, seeing as how the rebuild has taken far too long with too many incorrect pieces brought in during it. Having selected monster left tackle Mekti Becton last year in the first round, it was only right that addressing QB was the next step. Whether Wilson is the right guy to fill these Broadway-sized shoes remains to be seen, but earning the starting job immediately can help paint a very clear picture moving forward.
2021 Projected Statistics for Zach Wilson
17 Starts / 365 for 570 / 3,812 yards / 22 TDs / 17 INTs / 268 rushing yards / 5 rushing TDs
Jameson Crowder, rookie Elijah Moore, Denzel Mims.
Chris Herndon.
Carter. Tevin Coleman. La’Mical Perine.
These are the offensive weapons that surround Wilson in his first year in the league – and while there are players that have promise, the relative lack of perceived production means that Wilson will be forced to try and make a lot of things work himself. Under Saleh, Wilson will be tasked with working with a young coaching staff undertaking its first real test, as a good chunk came over with Saleh from the San Francisco 49ers.
Working with offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, Wilson should be exposed to some elements that he worked with in college, which certainly would help settle his acclimation process into the league.
LaFleur comes over from the Niners, a team that ranked near the top of the NFL in pre-snap motion at the end of last year. With the success that LaFleur saw first-hand from SF head coach Kyle Shanahan, expecting a carryover of sorts for offensive scheme – but in an easy-to-digest version for Wilson – is definitely in the cards.
With Becton and George Fant acting as this team’s likely starting tackles (and Becton being very familiar with it), switching to a zone scheme would suit both Carter and Coleman’s styles in this offense. Becoming an offense that mirrors elements of the current NFL is minimally what the Jets need to do, even if there are many unknowns at this point about what specifics it will include.
Wilson likely will be tasked with throwing the ball a ton this season, especially when (not if) New York is losing – letting the rookie work through some mock two-minute drills while taking his fair share of licks and turnovers can help him in the long run. Taking the long approach to Wilson’s development is going to be key for the Jets, and with their recent luck – or lack thereof – of developing QBs, they need to stick to that playbook if they want Wilson to work out.
Attempting a bit under 600 passes and completing around 64 percent of them may seem a bit high for an offense devoid of proven talent, but Wilson will likely feel most comfortable with hitting short routes, a solid way to build up his confidence. If LaFleur can help scheme shorter looks for Wilson (at least in the beginning of the year), those rhythm throws will let Wilson feel more at ease as opposing defenses are bearing down.
A somewhat low passing yardage total, combined with a 1.29:1 touchdown to interception ratio, speaks volumes about the lack of confidence many have in this team’s offense. Needing to throw themselves back into games will not be an easy task for Wilson, and it certainly will be made even tougher with the trio of Carter, Moore, and Wilson learning the ropes all at the same time.
His rushing abilities are going to be key to his early development – his willingness to tuck and run at BYU was fully on display (his career-high in college was 254 rushing yards in one season), but being smart when taking off and running is going to be the difference that can help keep him healthy for his rookie campaign.
Setting the world on fire was never in the cards for Zach Wilson in his first season – potentially seen as the QB4 of this draft, he went as the QB2 and thus takes on even higher expectations than originally expected. Wilson was a fast riser through the draft process, and he is going to need to pay his dues back to the Jets – just don’t expect those payments to happen in his first season, especially alongside both Carter and Moore.
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