A battle between David and Goliath. That’s what experts and fans alike are calling the Western Conference Semifinals series between the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers, which tips off tomorrow.
They’re not only saying it because the Rockets enter the series as underdogs after a grueling seven-game battle against the Oklahoma City Thunder while the Lakers enjoyed almost a week of rest after dispatching the eight-seeded Portland Trail Blazers in five games. The reason why this series is drawing comparisons to the biblical tale is literal as much as it is figurative.
The Lakers boast arguably the league’s most physically imposing frontline with Anthony Davis and fellow giants Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee taking turns playing center. The Rockets, in contrast, have gone all-in on their small-ball experiment (dubbed “micro ball” by the media), as they usually start the 6-foot-5 PJ Tucker at the five. But what people seem to forget is that speed is also capable of trumping size and that David actually did well against Goliath.
Coach Mike D’Antoni and General Manager Daryl Morey have banked on small-ball as being the formula that would give Houston its first NBA championship since the days of Hakeem Olajuwon. The Lakers of James and Davis provide the ultimate test for that formula.
Here are three reasons why James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and the Rockets are capable of overcoming the challenge posed by the Lakers:
1. Three is greater than two
It’s basic math, and D’Antoni and Morey know it well. The Rockets get more than half of their points from beyond the arc, more than any team in the league. They are willing to live and die by the three, and they survived the Thunder thanks to the 3-ball and their defense. They shot 128-of-357 (36-percent) from long distance in the first round, which set the record for most attempts and makes in a playoff series in NBA history, per ESPN. The Lakers also shot around the same percentage from 3-point range during their first-round series against the Blazers but attempted far fewer shots.
In contrast, Los Angeles relies on two-pointers more than any playoff team, with James and Davis getting most of their buckets inside the paint. The Rockets will let it fly from the 3-point line, and if they make even close to 40-percent of their threes, the Lakers would have no answer, as they have been average at best from distance. Houston has done it in the regular season, where they beat the Lakers twice in three meetings. In a February 6th meeting which they won 121-111, they made 19 of their 42 threes (45-percent). The playoffs will be a different matter, of course, but that game showed that it can be done.
2. The Lakers struggled against opposing guards
Much of the talk heading into the Lakers’ first-round series against Portland was how they were going to defend Bubble MVP Damian Lillard and his backcourt partner CJ McCollum. But after a stunning Game 1 defeat, the Lakers have put those concerns to rest after finishing off the Blazers in five games. Now, they face the same questions regarding Harden and Westbrook. With Avery Bradley not making it to Orlando and Rajon Rondo continuing to recover from injury, there aren’t a lot of bodies the Lakers could throw to guard the two former MVPs.
Harden and Westbrook have also shown they can excel even against the Lakers’ defense, which had allowed 106.3 points per 100 possessions, which ranks third in the league, according to Basketball Reference. During their regular-season meeting in February, Westbrook finished with 41 points, eight rebounds, and five assists in a Rockets win. More recently, Harden torched the Purple and Gold with 39 points, eight boards, and 12 assists in an August 7 game which Houston won, 113-97. Even though James didn’t play in that game, the Rockets’ stars have shown that they can get their numbers even against an elite defense like the Lakers.
3. They’ve shown that they can play defense
Perhaps no play better exemplifies this than the one that decided Game 7 between the Rockets and Thunder. With Houston leading by just one and Oklahoma City with the ball, Harden blocked Luguentz Dort’s potential series-winning 3-pointer to preserve the Rockets’ win. Despite the reputation that Harden and the Rockets have gained as a team that is focused solely on offense, the Rockets have actually done well on defense, especially in the playoffs.
Against the Thunder, they allowed just 101.7 points per 100 possessions, which ranks as the best among the playoff teams. The Lakers, meanwhile, gave up 104.1 points per 100 possessions against the Blazers, according to NBA Stats. It remains to be seen if they can sustain that impressive number against a team like the Lakers, especially with Tucker guarding both James and Davis. The Rockets may give up a few inches against the Lakers’ big men, but it doesn’t mean that they’re a sieve on the defensive end. Having taller lineups also brings into question whether the Lakers’ bigs can venture out into the 3-point line, where the Rockets’ players usually are.
The Rockets remain underdogs against a team like the Lakers. But if they make a lot of their threes, defend well, and get more from Harden and Westbrook than the Lakers from their own stars, they are capable of slaying the giant and pulling off a massive upset that can turn the Western Conference playoffs upside down.
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