The Tampa Bay Lightning start a homestand as they face the Colorado Avalanche. It is time to continue our NHL odds series with an Avalanche-Lightning prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Avalanche come into the game sitting at 33-17-4 on the year, sitting second in the Central Division. The Avalanche have won just five of their last ten games though. Last time out, they visited the Washington Capitals. The Avalanche started strong, with two goals in the first five minutes of the game. Still, they would give to goal back in the next five minutes to be tied at the end of the first period. In the second, Artturi Lehkonen and Mikko Rantanen both scored in the second period to take the lead in the second period. Alex Ovechkin scored on the power play to make it a one-goal game, but the Avalanche scored two empty netters to win the game 6-3.
Meanwhile, the Lightning come into the game sitting at 29-20-5 on the year, third in the Atlantic Division. They have won ten of their last 13 games overall. Last time out, they faced the Boston Bruins. Erik Cernak scored for the Lightning in the first period, and then just 1:06 into the second period, Nikita Kucherov scored on the power play to make it 2-0. The Bruins would strike back, as Charlie McAvoy scored less than a minute later and then James van Riemsdyk would tie it up in the second. This would lead to a shootout, where Brayden Point would win it for the Lightning.
Here are the NHL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NHL Odds: Avalanche-Lightning Odds
Colorado Avalanche: +1.5 (-245)
Moneyline: -105
Tampa Bay Lightning: -1.5 (+198)
Moneyline: -114
Over: 6.5 (-128)
Under: 6.5 (+104)
How to Watch Avalanche vs. Lightning
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
TV: NHLPP/ESPN+
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Avalanche Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Avalanche are first in the NHL this year in goals per game, sitting with 3.70 goals per game this year. Nathan MacKinnon leads the team this year. MacKinnon has the most goals, assists, and points on the Avalanche. He comes in another game with 32 goals and 55 assists, good for 87 total points. Further, he has been amazing in the power play, with seven goals and 26 assists when on the man-advantage. Second on the team in goals and points is Mikko Rantanen. He comes into the game with 29 goals on the year, plus 40 assists, giving him a total of 69 points. Further, he has also been great on the power play, with 11 goals and 20 assists on the power lay this year.
The power play is also somewhere Valeri Nichushkin has thrived. He has 22 total goals and 20 assists, with 13 of the goals and three of the assists when on the power play. Further, the Avalanche get a lot of help on offense from the blue line. Cale Makar is third on the team in points, coming in with 13 goals and 47 assists, good for 60 total points. He has five goals and 22 assists on the power play this year. Devon Toews comes in with new goals and 21 assists, good for 30 points from the blue line as well.
The Avalanche's power play ranks seventh in the NHL this year, with a 24.1 percent success rate and 48 total power-play goals on the season. The penalty kill is 12th in the NHL with an 81.3 percent success rate, but seventh in the NHL with seven shorthanded goals.
The Avalanche are expected to send Alexander Georgiev to tend the twine in this one. He is 28-13-3 on the year with a 2.94 goals-against average and a .898 save percentage. In his last four games, he has a 3.27 goals against average and a .895 save percentage in those games. Further, he is 1-2-1 in his last four starts, giving up three or more goals in three of them.
Why The Lightning Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Lightning sit seventh in the NHL in scoring this year with 3.39 goals per game on the season. Nikita Kucherov leads the team in goals, assists, and points this year. He comes into the game with 34 goals on the season and 56 assists, good for 90 total points. Kucherov leads the NHL in points this year, three points of second place in Nathan MacKinnon. He has been great on the power play this year, with 12 goals and 27 assists on the power play this year. Meanwhile, Brayden Point sits second on the team in goals and points this year. He has 25 goals and 29 assists this year, good for his 54 points. Seven of the goals and 12 assists come on the power play.
Joining him as a top scorer is Steven Stamkos. Stamkos comes in with 22 goals this year and 26 assists good for 48 points on the year. He also has been solid on the power play, with 12 goals and 16 assists this year. Meanwhile, Lightning also gets a lot of help from the blue line on offense. Victor Hedman comes into the game with nine goals and 43 assists this year, good for 52 points. This gives the Lightning three players with 50 or more points, and two other players over 40 points on the year.
The Lightning have been great this year on the power play. They have a 30.7 percent success rate this year on the power play, with 51 total power-play goals. That is the first in the NHL this year. Further, the Lightning have been average when man-down this year. They are tenth in the NHL on the penalty kill with an 81.6 percent success rate this year.
The Lighting is expected to send Andrei Vasilevskiy to defend the net in this one. He is 18-11-0 on the year with a 2.76 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage. Vasilevskiy has been solid in his last three starts, with a 2-1 record, 1.96 goals against average, and a .938 save percentage.
Final Avalanche-Lightning Prediction & Pick
While Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the better goalie over Alexander Georgiev as of late, both have similar season-long totals. Further, these two teams are evenly matched. The Lightning may be able to take advantage of being at home, as the Avlanahce has struggled more on the road as of late. Still, these are two of the best offensive units in the NHL. The goalies can be solid, but they can also give up chunks of goals. The prediction in this Avalanche-Lightning game is a high-scoring affair.
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Final Avalanche-Lightning Prediction & Pick: Over 6.5 (-128)
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