The Chattanooga Mocs take on the MTSU Blue Raiders. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Chattanooga MTSU prediction and pick.

The Chattanooga Mocs are in a transition year. Last season, they made the NCAA Tournament and gave the fourth-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini a huge scare in the first round of the Big Dance before narrowly losing in a thriller. After the loss, which marked the end of the season, Chattanooga head coach Lamont Paris took the open head coaching job at South Carolina, which was vacated after the school parted ways with Frank Martin, who guided the Gamecocks to their first Final Four in 2017. Paris is in a new spot, and Chattanooga had to replace him. The Mocs' choice was Dan Earl, who had spent the previous seven seasons at VMI with the Keydets. Earl certainly knows the terrain of recruiting at the mid-major level in the areas knitting together Southern Appalachia and the Carolinas. VMI to Chattanooga is an upward move in major college coaching and in the Mid-South region of the United States. It will be fascinating to see what Earl is able to achieve, as he tries to get Chattanooga back to the NCAA Tournament and into a Moc bracket. Chattanooga is 7-3 through 10 games, with two of its wins being against non-Division I opponents.

Middle Tennessee, best known for its 15-over-2 upset of Michigan State in the 2016 NCAA Tournament under former coach Kermit Davis, is also 7-3 through 10 games, and also owning two wins over non-Division I teams. Coach Nick McDevitt is in his fourth season at MTSU, trying to recreate the magic of the 2016 and 2017 seasons in which the Blue Raiders pulled off March Madness upsets as a double-digit seed and reached the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. This meeting with Chattanooga is fascinating precisely because one can so readily identify the similarities and parallels between the two programs and what they have gone through, losing NCAA Tournament coaches to SEC schools (Davis from MTSU to Ole Miss, Paris from Chattanooga to South Carolina).

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Chattanooga-MTSU College Basketball odds.

College Basketball Odds: Chattanooga-MTSU Odds

Chattanooga Mocs: +5.5 (-110)

MTSU Blue Raiders: -5.5 (-110)

Over: 138.5 (-115)

Under: 138.5 (-105)

Why Chattanooga Could Cover the Spread

The Mocs have wins over Murray State, Gardner-Webb and Milwaukee. While those three teams are not as strong as they have been in previous years, they still carry notable basketball brands from previous March Madness appearances. Murray State's basketball reputation is self-evident. Gardner-Webb was the team which led Virginia at halftime in the first round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament before losing to the top-seeded Cavaliers in the second half (but not without putting up a fight). Milwaukee has authored NCAA Tournament upsets in the past under a head coach you might have heard of: Bruce Pearl.

Chattanooga has its own NCAA Tournament reputation. While a good portion of this season's roster is new — and key pieces from the 2022 NCAA Tournament team are no longer around — this team is finding its sea legs and could certainly handle a Middle Tennessee team which does not have significantly better achievements to this point in the season.

Why MTSU Could Cover the Spread

The case to make for Middle Tennessee rests on a comparison of opponent quality so far this season. While the gap in quality between Chattanooga's and MTSU's opponents is not dramatic, it is still noticeable, and it's something which matters when evaluating these teams and considering which one to pick. MTSU has lost to Missouri State and Saint Bonaventure, which are better teams than the Lipscomb and Charleston teams Chattanooga has lost to, and maybe better than Ole Miss, which just lost at home to UCF. Middle Tennessee has won games against Belmont and Montana State, both contenders for their respective conference championships. The Blue Raiders have done slightly better work this season than the Mocs, and that stands out.

Middle Tennessee is also playing this game at home, and the Blue Raiders have played only two games in December, whereas Chattanooga has played three. MTSU is likely to be physically fresher for this game, giving the team an extra edge.

Final Chattanooga-MTSU Prediction & Pick

This is a game to stay away from. We need to see more of these teams before thinking we can identify a sharp and very clear difference between the two.

Final Chattanooga-MTSU Prediction & Pick: MTSU -5.5