The Arkansas Razorbacks (3-2) travel to take on the #23 Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-1) in an SEC conference matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 pm ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with an Arkansas-Mississippi State prediction and pick.

Arkansas is 3-2 this season. After starting 3-0, the Razorbacks have dropped two straight games to ranked opponents. Last week, Arkansas was routed by #2 Alabama 49-26. Arkansas is at the bottom of the SEC West thanks to a 1-2 conference record. They are 2-3 against the spread this season.

Mississippi State is 4-1 thanks to last week's 42-24 beatdown of #17 Texas A&M. The Bulldogs' lone loss this season came in a road affair with LSU where they lost 16-31. Mississippi State is 1-1 in SEC West – middle of the pack. They are 3-2 against the spread this season.

Here are the Arkansas-Mississippi State college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Arkansas-Mississippi State Odds

Arkansas Razorbacks: +9.5 (-110)

Mississippi State Bulldogs: -9.5 (-110)

Over: 57.5 (-110)

Under: 57.5 (-110)

Why Arkansas Could Cover The Spread

Arkansas has flirted with the Top 25 all season long and is a much better team than their 3-2 record suggests. They started the season on fire but have sputtered of late.

Offensively, the Razorbacks have one of the most balanced attacks in the country. Arkansas has thrown for 1131 yards and ran for 1162 yards. With a plethora of weapons, the Razorbacks' offense has plenty of options to throw at the Bulldogs' defense. That starts with quarterback KJ Jefferson. The junior quarterback has struggled to push the ball downfield outside of a 385-yard performance against Missouri State but is an efficient and experienced passer.

In his second season as a starter, Jefferson has thrown for 1096 yards and 9 touchdowns. Not eye-popping numbers but he's been efficient as the Razorbacks' field general. He's thrown just 1 interception while completing 66% of his passes. Jefferson has always been able to take care of the ball (just 4 interceptions in 294 attempts last year) but where he really shines is on the ground. Jefferson is a dual-threat quarterback who's a capable threat in the red zone. He's run for four touchdowns this season and has eclipsed 17 rushing attempts in 4 of Arkansas' 5 games this year.

Despite Jefferson's prowess on the ground, the role of leading rusher belongs to sophomore running back Raheim Sanders. Sanders had a solid freshman season in a limited role last year and has exploded in his first year as a full-time starter. His 609 rushing yards lead the SEC. He's run for 5.8 yards per carry and has found his way into the end zone 4 times on the ground and once through the air. He's coming off a 100-yard game against the stout Alabama defense. Sanders' play will have a major impact on any Arkansas-Mississippi State prediction.

Why Mississippi State Could Cover The Spread

Mississippi State has had a solid start to the season despite dropping a winnable game at LSU. The Bulldogs sit at 4-1 but are entering a crucial stretch of conference games.

The name of the game for Mississippi State is the passing attack. Under head coach Mike Leach, the Bulldogs have one of the most potent air games in the country. Quarterback Will Rodgers has followed up his near-5000-yard season last year with a blistering hot start to the 2022 season. Through five games the junior leads the SEC and is third in all of College Football with 1715 passing yards. He's tied for first in the country with 19 passing yards but has managed to throw just 3 interceptions despite a high volume of attempts. Rodgers isn't much of a threat on the ground but the pocket passer has his team averaging a blistering 38 points per game.

With Rodgers throwing the ball so much (47 attempts per game), he's been able to spread the ball across the Mississippi State receiving room. Five Bulldogs have at least 19 receptions and four have over 200 yards. Rodgers is comfortable getting the ball out quickly and dumping it off to his running backs for short gains, but his favorite vertical threat has become clear. Sophomore receiver Rara Thomas is fourth in the SEC in receiving yards and is coming off his best game of the season. In Mississippi State's win last week the speedster caught 5 balls for 134 yards. That included a 75-yard touchdown that put the game out of reach in the 4th quarter. Thomas' ability to stretch the field will be a major factor in Saturday's matchup.

Final Arkansas-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick

Arkansas and Mississippi State should be competitive enough that I don't feel comfortable taking a side. While Arkansas has the firepower to keep up with Mississippi State, the Bulldogs' recent play makes me weary of predicting a Razorbacks cover. Consider this though, Arkansas has gone over in 4 of its 5 games this year, while Mississippi State has done so in 3 of its 5 games. With two high-powered offenses, I'll take the over in what should be a shootout.

Final Arkansas-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Over 57.5 (-110)