Greg McDermott and the Creighton Bluejays take on Rick Barnes’ Tennessee Volunteers in this Sweet 16 matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Creighton-Tennessee prediction and pick.
Coming off a nasty 62-58 grind-it-out win over Texas, Rick Barnes has his work cut out for him in the Sweet 16. The Volunteers shot an abysmal 3-25 (12%) from long range but still won thanks to a stout defense. Point guard Zakai Zeigler played all 40 minutes forcing three steals and dishing out seven dimes. Texas head coach Rodney Terry called Zeigler “the head of the snake” when referring to Tennessee in his postgame interview. Rick Barnes is attempting to get to the Elite 8 for the first time in 16 years.
Standing in his way, the Creighton Bluejays out of the Big East. Creighton was a part of one of the craziest games of the first weekend, an 86-73 2OT win over Oregon.
Both coaches have a reputation for shortcomings in the NCAA tournament so a win here would be monumental to break through the glass ceiling.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Creighton-Tennessee Odds
Creighton: +2.5 (-108)
Moneyline: +118
Tennessee: -2.5 (-112)
Moneyline: -142
Over: 143.5 (-115)
Under: 143.5 (-105)
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Why Creighton Will Cover The Spread/Win
Initially, the variance with Creighton from game to game due to the high three-point rate has to be recognized. Since this team shoots so many threes, their results can vary to the extreme. In the same week Creighton dog-walked the nation’s No. 1 team in UConn, they got smoked by a St. John’s team who did not even make the tournament. If the outside shots are falling early and the Bluejays jump out to a lead, that could be all they need. Tennessee is a team that relies heavily on Dalton Knecht for scoring which has come back to bite them when trailing games because they tend to become one-dimensional offensively.
Importantly, Creighton ranked 1st in the Big East in assist rate defensively. The Bluejays defense allowed an assist on just 41.9% of made field goals. Tennessee offensively ranked 3rd in the SEC in offensive assist rate (59.6%). Remember what Texas coach Rodney Terry said about Zeigler being the head of the snake? Zeigler’s assist rate is 34% which ranks 28th nationally. The next highest assist rate on Tennessee is Santiago Vescovi at 16%. If Creighton’s defense can neutralize Zeigler’s catalyst ability to create for others, the Volunteers' offense stagnates.
Lastly, Creighton has the pieces needed to make a deep tournament run. The Bluejays rank 41st in minutes continuity from last year to this, and also rank 8th in Division-1 experience. McDermott has a veteran group who fit the Creighton play style perfectly. If there was ever a year for McDermott to break through, a year when they have three out of the top five KenPom-rated players in the Big East (1 Tristen Newton, 2 Baylor Scheierman, 3 Eric Dixon, 4 Trey Alexander, 5 Ryan Kalkbrenner) would be the year to do it.
Why Tennessee Will Cover The Spread/Win
First, Creighton is coming from a game against an Oregon team that only played six players. I have never seen a game where players were so gassed they would take the first 15 seconds of each offensive possession to rest with their hands on their knees. Never seen it before. This played heavily in Creighton’s favor as they rank 356th nationally in bench minutes. Now Creighton will be matched up against a Tennessee team that comfortably plays eight guys for double-digit minutes. Depth and bench scoring should favor the Vols here.
Also, another factor that will play here is Tennessee’s ability to hit mid-range jump shots. Creighton plays a drop coverage with 7-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner protecting the rim. Creighton’s entire defensive scheme funnels opponents into making mid-range floaters and jumpers. Thankfully, Dalton Knecht, Josiah-Jordan James, Jonas Aidoo, Zakai Zeigler, and even Jahmai Mashack, have quality mid-range games.
Additionally, Tennessee ranks 2nd in the country in open-three-rate defensively per ShotQuality. Creighton just so happens to rank 7th nationally in three-point attempt rate and 11th in percentage of points from three-pointers. Simply put–the Bluejays rely heavily on the three. Tennessee’s aggressive nature on the perimeter should make life difficult for the Creighton shooters.
Lastly, this is a Tennessee team that has a clear-cut matchup style they do not like to play. In SEC play, the Volunteers lost to Mississippi State twice, South Carolina, and Texas A&M. They dropped the final game of the regular season to Kentucky, but the SEC title was already locked up and Kentucky shot an absurd 15-29 (51.7%) from three. The majority of Tennessee’s losses came against physical teams that could muck things up. In this matchup against Creighton, the Vols will be by far the more physical team.
Final Creighton-Tennessee Prediction & Pick
According to VSiN Pro’s betting splits, Tennessee is the slight public side with 54% of bets and 62% of the handle on the -2.5 spread. The difference in this game will be the physicality. Both squads rank top-30 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, there is not much on paper separating the two. Between the edge in physicality and Tennessee’s ability to cash in the midrange, I will side with the favorites here.
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Final Creighton-Tennessee Prediction & Pick: Tennessee -2.5 (-112)
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