Croatia is looking to bounce back from their tournament-opening loss to Spain when they take on Albania, who also lost their opener to Italy. There were concerns that Croatia’s aging core couldn’t compete with Italy and Spain, as they snuck through qualifying thanks to matches against Armenia and Latvia. It is time to continue our Euro 2024 odds series with a Croatia-Albania prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

The biggest fears about Croatia came true against Spain, as the skill and speed overpowered Croatia on the way to three goals in the first half. They scored twice in three minutes around the 29-minute mark, which ended Croatia’s bid as a team not built to play from behind. Croatia’s goal differential taking a -3 hit in the first game hurts their chances of advancing to the knockout round as one of the better third seeds. Croatia can’t seem to replicate their World Cup success, as they’ve never won a Euro knockout stage game, a streak that will likely continue this year.

Albania’s Euro bid had the perfect start, as Nedim Bajrami scored 23 seconds into the tournament opener against Italy. Their lead lasted 11 minutes, as Italy evened the game and then took the lead at the 34-minute mark. Albania’s goal was the fastest in Euro history, and their one-goal loss wasn’t a terrible result in their first game in the Group of Death. An upset win for Albania over Croatia could put them in position for an unlikely advancement to the group stage.

Here are the 2024 Euros odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2024 Euros Odds: Croatia-Albania Odds

Croatia: -210

Albania: +600

Draw: +320

Over 2.5 goals: -106

Under 2.5 goals: -116

How to Watch Croatia vs. Albania

Time: 9 AM ET/6 AM PT

TV: FS1, TSN

Stream: (Click Here for Free Trial)

Why Croatia Will Win

Croatia needs to jump on Albania early in this game. Albania won’t do well playing from behind, as they had just 7.44 expected goals in qualifying. Croatia’s experience will help them stop the generic Albania offense, but they need to squeeze out a 1-0 or 2-0 victory in this matchup. The question for this game will be how well Albania performs, as Croatia did good in qualifying against weaker teams, with 10.9 expected goals in four games against Armenia and Latvia.

Why Albania Will Win

Albania is a better team when they play passively until the final third. They lose their composure in games when they fall behind, but Croatia’s low goal-scoring abilities will help Albania play the way they want to. Albania excels with transition offense and defense in the low block, which they’ll exploit against Croatia. Albania had the fifth-most counter-attacking shots in the Euro field.

Final Croatia-Albania Prediction & Pick

Albania’s defense held firm in their opening match with Italy, allowing the high-scoring squad to score just two goals. Albania plays the game passively until they reach the opponent’s third, preferring to drag out the games and win low-scoring affairs. Their qualifying games averaged 1.97 expected goals, as Albania plays very direct and predictable. Other teams can shut down their offense thanks to Albania’s failures to adapt to modern soccer. Albania likely wouldn’t have scored against Italy if it weren’t for a dreadful mistake by Federico Dimarco in the opening minute.

Croatia isn’t able to generate offense against good defensive teams. Their performance in qualifying looked better because of games against Armenia and Latvia. However, Croatia created 5.2 expected goals in four matches against Turkey and Wales. This game could be a low-event passive matchup that goes under the total.

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Final Croatia-Albania Prediction & Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-116)