Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry is coming off of a breakout 2018 campaign in which he racked up 1,059 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
Now, Henry is entering his fourth NFL season and is looking to build upon his terrific third year, but the question is, what should we expect from Henry this time around, and where should you target him in your Fantasy Football draft?
While there is certainly quite a bit to like with Henry, there are also some concerns.
Let's start with the fact that a huge chunk of Henry's production in 2018 came over the final four weeks of the season, when he totaled a ridiculous 585 yards on the ground, good for 146.3 yards per game.
His carries also increased drastically, as he registered 87 carries over those last four contests, which comes out to 21.8 attempts per game. Here's the catch: Henry never even carried the ball 20 times in a single game before Week 14, and five times, he registered single-digit attempts.
So, just what happened over the final few weeks that led to Henry becoming such a monster?
Well, the Titans were fighting for a playoff spot, and with their quarterback situation in flux due to Marcus Mariota not being healthy, they leaned on Henry and all but drove him into the ground.
While there is actually a pretty good chance Tennessee rides Henry quite a bit in 2019, as its passing game is simply not that good, Henry won't be racking up 33 carries in any one game like he did in Week 15.
Prior to that late-season burst, Henry was actually kind of disappointing to fantasy owners throughout most of 2018, as he finished with under 30 rushing yards four times and never even totaled 60 yards at any point before Week 14.
Here is another caveat: seven of Henry's 12 touchdowns came from Week 14 on. Heck, a third of them came in Week 14 when he punched in four scores in a 238-yard performance, an outing in which he averaged 14 yards per carry in what was unquestionably an outlier type of game.
To add on, Henry did not have a game where he had more than two catches in 2018, and on the season overall, he finished with just 15 receptions for 99 yards, a pretty brutal mark for a No. 1 back in today's game.
In Henry's first two NFL seasons, he posted 490 and 744 yards, respectively, so he never came close to recording the type of production he had this past year.
What I'm trying to say is, don't look at Henry's impressive rushing numbers from 2018 and think of him as an elite running back, because he isn't.
Yes, he will probably have a nice chunk of opportunities given the fact that the Titans don't have a great aerial attack, but Henry has not proven himself to be a consistent contributor, and his complete lack of an impact as a receiver puts him very far behind the elite backs of the NFL.
If you were thinking of using an early pick on Henry, you should probably head back to the drawing board, because he is not worth a first or second-round pick.
Instead, Henry is more of a guy who draft in the middle rounds as a high-end No. 2.
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