Ranked thirteenth overall in the nation, Brad Underwood’s Illinois Fighting Illini will take on Dennis Gates’ Missouri Tigers. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Illinois-Missouri prediction and pick.

After playing young for a season, Brad Underwood said to heck with it and hit the portal this off-season. The Fighting Illini got old quickly by bringing in three senior transfers Justin Harmon (Utah Valley), Quincy Guerrier (Oregon/Syracuse), and Marcus Domask (Southern Illinois). In fact, Brad Underwood does not play a freshman over ten minutes a game. The newcomers have fit in quite nicely around preseason All-American, Terrence Shannon Jr. 

Similarly, Dennis Gates has one of the oldest teams in the nation. Upperclassmen transfers Caleb Grill (Iowa State), Connor Vanover (Oral Roberts/Arkansas), Tamar Bates (Indiana), and John Tonje (Colorado State) have been tasked with replacing the holes left by last year's stars.  Unfortunately, Caleb Grill (8.4pts 5.8reb) has fallen with an injury. Despite bringing in a plethora of transfers, Missouri has been leaning into their returning senior core of Nick Honor, Sean East II, and Noah Carter. 

Two squads have fully leaned into the transfer portal and are playing experience over youth here. These teams met on this same day last year, with Missouri winning a blowout, 93-71. This game was where Kobe Brown and D’Moi Hodge combined for 51 points while Terrence Shannon and Coleman Hawkins combined 0-11 from three. I think it is safe to say this one will be closer this time around. 

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Illinois-Missouri Odds

Illinois: -6.5 (-110)

Missouri: +6.5 (-110)

Over: 149.5 (-110)

Under: 149.5 (-110)

How to Watch Illinois vs. Missouri

Time: 9:00 pm ET/ 6:00 pm PT

TV: FS1

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Illinois Will Cover The Spread

To start, we have to mention the height of Illinois. The Fighting Illini rank 11th nationally in average height and they use it to their advantage. The shortest starter for Brad Underwood is 6-6, while Missouri only has three guys on the roster taller than 6-6. Illinois ranks top fifty in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. One of Missouri’s weaknesses is rebounding — ranking 240th in offensive rebounding rate and 317th in defensive rebounding rate. The Tigers have been outrebounded in three straight games, I predict a fourth straight incoming. 

Secondly, the Illinois defense with all this height makes it extremely difficult for opponents to get clean looks from outside. While Missouri has a three-point attempt rate of 45.2% (33rd), the Illinois defense only allows an attempt rate of 28.7% (15th). For a Missouri offense that gets the vast majority of its point distribution from 3-pointers, this is a nightmare matchup. I predict the Illinois perimeter defense to impact Missouri’s outside shooting. 

Speaking of an impact on Missouri’s outside shooting, the loss of Caleb Grill will be felt here for the Tigers. Grill not only spaced the floor for Missouri, but he was led the team in rebounds, steals, and turnover rate. Missouri has lost the past two games that Grill has been out for.

Why Missouri Will Cover The Spread

Initially, it is important to note where this game is being played. Technically classified as a neutral game, the Enterprise Center will feel more like a Missouri home game. Less than two hours away from Columbia, I predict Tigers fans to dominate the crowd. Do not put too much weight into this factor, for it is three days before Christmas so who knows how many people will show up. Still, it is worth noting that if the crowd is to play a factor, it will be in Missouri’s favor. 

Additionally, Illinois plays a defensive style that does not force turnovers. Despite their insane length, they are not aggressive with steals — a steal rate of 6% ranks 352nd and a turnover rate of 13.8% ranks 342nd. I mention this because Missouri runs a guard-oriented offense with no ball handler playing with a turnover rate higher than 20%. Point guard Nick Honor has seen his turnover rate increase with the added volume, but I tend to trust the graduate seniors. 

Also, it is important to remember how battle-tested this team is already. Missouri’s past four games were all against quality opponents, including a tough nine-point loss at Allen Fieldhouse. This team may not have the NBA-level talent they possessed last year, but they have not forgotten how to fight. Coming off of two straight losses, you have to think Missouri will play their hearts out in this one. 

Final Illinois-Missouri Prediction & Pick

Brad Underwood has already come out in press conferences this week talking about last year's result. He noted how young and tired the team was — coming in much older this time around. I truly think that plays a factor, this left a bad taste in Underwood's mouth. I guarantee you Illinois plays with an extra bit of hustle and energy in this one to match Missouri’s. 

Combine Illinois perimeter defense and their ability to rebound and I predict a rough night for the Tigers. Give me a new look Illinois team by a healthy margin in a revenge game from last year. 

Final Illinois-Missouri Prediction & Pick: Illinois -6.5 (-110)