Two teams from the Big Ten West face as Illinois visits Purdue. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with an Illinois-Purdue prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Illinois enters the game at 2-2 on the year. They started with a very close win over Toledo. Illinois was down one with under three minutes to play but hit a field goal with five seconds left in the game to win. Then it was back-to-back losses for Illinois. They lost to Kansas and Penn State, both by double digits. Last week Illinois rebounded. They came back from down ten points against FAU and would hold on to win 23-17.

Purdue is 1-3 on the year. They opened the season with a loss to Fresno State. Purdue had a lead with under five minutes left in the game, but Fresno State came back and scored on a 79-yard drive to win 39-35. They almost allowed a comeback the next week as well. They were up 17-0 to start, but Virginia Tech tied it at half. Then Purdue would score in the fourth to win 24-17. For as close as the first two games were, they lost big in the next two. It was losses to Syracuse and Illinois, both by 15 or more points.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Illinois-Purdue Odds

Illinois: +1.5 (-120)

Purdue: -1.5 (-102)

Over: 53.5 (-110)

Under: 53.5 (-110)

How to Watch Illinois vs. Purdue

TV: Peacock

Stream: Peacock

Time: 3:30 PM ET/ 12:30 PM PT

*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Illinois Will Cover The Spread

Luke Altmyer played great last week against FAU. He went 25-36 for 303 yards and a score in the game. He had struggled with turnovers early this year, throwing seven interceptions in the first three games of the year. Last time out, he did not throw a turnover-worthy pass. He did have a fumble in the game though, but it was not lost. Altmyer has also been solid scrambling. He has over 140 yards scrambling this year, while he has also scored three times on the ground this year.

Meanwhile, Reggie Love III has been solid on the ground this year. He has run 45 times this year and gone for 252 yards and a score. While he is only getting 1.3 yards downfield before seeing contact this year, he has been solid after contact. He has 194 yards after contact this year, averaging 4.31 yards after contact this year.

Further, Isaiah Williams and Pat Bryant have been good in the receiving core. Williams has 33 yards this year with 24 receptions on 39 targets. He is also averaging over six yards after the catch per receptions this year. Meanwhile, Bryant has just 115 yards this year, but he has scored twice this year.

Illinois needs to do a better job of getting to the quarterback. They have just five sacks in four games this year. Jer'Zahn Newton has 16 quarterback pressures this year, but he has just two sacks and two quarterback hits. Meanwhile, Keith Randolph is second on the team with seven pressures and two sacks as well. They also could produce some more turnovers. Illinois has three interceptions this year but has also dropped three while allowing seven touchdowns through the air.

Why Purdue Will Cover The Spread

Hudson Card leads the Purdue offense. This year he has been solid, but not spectacular. He has completed 93 of 148 passes this year for 1,204 yards with three scores. Card is pushing the ball downfield, making four big-time throws, and having an average depth of target of 9.2 yards downfield. He has to be careful with the ball. Card has three interceptions this year with another eight turnover-worthy passes. He has also fumbled five times this year. Cards also need some better protection. He is being pressured on nearly a third of his dropbacks and has been sacked eight times.

To help with the pressure, Purdue needs to establish their running game. This year Devin Mockobee has been the lead back. He has run 53 times for 215 yards and two scores. There have been two major issues in the run game though. First, Mockobee is averaging less than a yard before first contact this year. Second, he has fumbled five times.

The card could also use some production from his receiving core. Only one receiver has caught a touchdown this year, and that is Deion Burks. He has brought in under half of his targets this year, bringing in just 15 of 33 targets. That is for 294 yards though and three scores. He has been doing well after the catch with 119 yards, but he has not been great in contested balls. He has just two contested catches on nine tries this year.

Purdue will also have to contain and get in contact with Luke Altmyer. This year, they have 87 pressures with ten sacks. Kydran Jenkins leads the way with 20 pressures and five sacks. He has also hit the quarterback four times this year. Hitting Altmyer and not letting him scramble is key to them winning in this game. They also need to be solid against the run. Dillion Thieneman has been the most productive against the run with 19 tackles this year. Still, only three are stops for offensive failures, and his average depth of tackle is nearly ten yards downfield. In pass coverage, Thieneman has been good. He has allowed a touchdown this year but also has two interceptions this year. Meanwhile, Marquis Wilson has four pass breakups and has allowed just 102 yards against him in coverage.

Final Illinois-Purdue Prediction & Pick

These two teams have a lot of similarities. They have similar defensive ranks and similar offensive ranks. Both teams can get some big plays and both teams are turnover prone. The difference in this game could come down to fewer turnovers and home-field. Purdue has fewer turnovers this year, and they are at home. Purdue also has the best win between the two teams, taking care of Virginia Tech. Hudson Card makes one more big play in this game, while Luke Altmyer makes one too many mistakes.

Final Illinois-Purdue Prediction & Pick: Purdue -1.5 (-102)