It is a Saturday Big Ten match-up as Illinois and Wisconsin face off. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Illinois-Wisconsin prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Illinois enters the game sitting at 21-7 on the year while sitting 12-5 in Big Ten play, which places them in second place in the conference. They have won four of their last five games overall, with the only loss being a one-point loss on the road, against Penn State. Since then, they have played great. They took a 95-85 victory over Iowa and then a 105-97 victory over Minnesota.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin is 18-10 on the year, sitting 10-7 in Big Ten play, good for fourth in the conference this year. Still, it has been a struggle as of late for Wisconsin. They have won just twice in their last six games. While thye have a loss to Purdue in there, they have also lost to Michigan, Rutgers, and last time Indiana. All three of those teams are in the bottom half of the Big Ten.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Illinois-Wisconsin Odds
Illinois: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +115
Wisconsin: -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -138
Over: 154.5 (-115)
Under: 154.5 (-105)
How to Watch Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Time: 1:00 PM ET/ 10:00 AM PT
TV: Big Ten Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Illinois Will Cover The Spread/Win
Illinois ranks 13th in adjusted efficiency in KenPom rankings while sitting third in adjusted offensive efficiency and 94th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are ninth in points per game this year while sitting 16th in field goals made per game this year. Terrence Shannon Jr. has been solid this year. He leads the team with 21.9 points per game of the year while shooting 47.7 percent from the field. Further, Marcus Domask has been good as well. He has 15.5 points per game this year while adding in 3.5 assists per game, the most of the team. Rounding out the top scorers is Coleman Hawkins. Hawkins comes in with 13.3 points per game this year.
What has been special about this Illinois team is the rebounding this year, they are fourth in the nation in rebounds per game. They are seventh in the nation in defensive rebounds per game while sitting 18th in the nation in offensive rebounds per game this year. Quincy Guerrier shines here. He comes in with 6.8 rebounds per game, helping his 10.3 points per game. Hawkins comes in rebounding well with 5.8 rebounds per game, while Ty Rodgers comes in with 5.3 rebounds per game.
On defense, Illinois is 184th in the nation in opponent points per game, while sitting 45th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Hawkins leads the team with 1.7 steals per game this year while having 1.0 blocks per game this year. Meanwhile, Shannon has just under a steal per game and one block per game this year.
Why Wisconsin Will Cover The Spread/Win
Wisconsin is ranked 23rd in KenPom's adjusted effects rankings this year. They are 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency this year while sitting 53rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Wisconsin is 134th in points per game this year, but they are 112th in effective field goal percentage this year. AJ Storr leads the team on offense. He has 16.2 points per game this year while also shooting 43.5 percent on the year. Tyler Whal is second on the team in points with 11.5 points per game this year, shooting 55.9 percent from the field this year. Meanwhile, Steven Crowl is shooting 55.4 percent on the year, with 11.2 points per game.
Wisconsin is 234th in total rebounds this year, but ninth in the nation in defensive rebounding rate this year. They are also ninth in the nation in opponent rebounds per game this year. Crowl and Wahl lead the way here. Crowl comes in with 7.7 rebounds per game while Wahl has 5.7 rebounds per game this season. Further, three other players have three or more rebounds per game this year.
Wisconsin is 78th in the nation in opponent points per game this year. Chucky Hepburn comes in with 2.0 steals per game this year, while Tyler Wahlm comes in with a steal per game this year. What has helped Wisconsin is the lack of turnovers. They have 5.8 steals per game but have just 9.8 turnovers per game this year. that ranks them 24th in the nation. They also bring down the tempo well while holding the ball, sitting 45th in the nation in turnover per play percentage.
Final Illinois-Wisconsin Prediction & Pick
These two teams are trending in opposite directions, but still, Wisconsin has to tools to make this close. They will help slow down the rebounding for Illinois with their effective rebounding game. That will slow down second-chance points, which is a key point of the offense for Illinois. Wisconsin is also solid on defense and should be able to slow Illinois down. Regardless, Wisconsin's struggle cannot be overlooked. They have failed to cover in each of their last eight games. Further, thye have not covered 11 of their last 12. Illinois has covered three of its last five, and while they do not cover all the time, they will in this one.
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Final Illinois-Wisconsin Prediction & Pick: Illinois +2.5 (-110)
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