UFC Vegas 91: Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez continues on the prelims with a fight in the lightweight division between promotional newcomers James Llontop and Chris Padilla. Llontop has now won 12 straight fights securing his contract on the Contender Series last year meanwhile, Padilla got the short-notice call-up after Gabe Green had to withdraw on the heels of three consecutive victories. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Llontop-Padilla prediction and pick.

James Llontop (14-2) secured his contract by defeating Malik Lewis via unanimous decision in the last season of the Contender Series. Now, after two fight cancelations when both Lando Vannata and Gabe Green both withdrew Llontop will be taking on short-notice newcomer Chris Padilla this weekend at UFC Vegas 91.

Chris Padilla (13-6) is finally getting his shot on the big show after an extensive regional career after three consecutive finishes and a bunch of fight cancelations. Padilla gets to make a statement and show off in front of the fans who may not know who he is when he takes on former Contender Series alumni James Llontop this Saturday afternoon.

Here are the UFC Vegas 91 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

UFC Vegas 91 Odds: James Llontop-Chris Padilla Odds

James Llontop: -440

Chris Padilla: +340

Over 2.5 rounds: +140

Under 2.5 rounds: -170

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Why James Llontop Will Win

This lightweight fight between James Llontop and Chris Padilla is generating significant buzz. Analyzing the fighters' attributes and recent performances, Llontop appears to have a distinct advantage that could lead him to victory.

Llontop's physical attributes are noteworthy. Standing at 6 feet tall, he has a frame that's well-suited for the lightweight division. His reach and height could give him the leverage to control the distance against Padilla, allowing him to land strikes effectively while minimizing the risk of counterattacks.

Llontop's fighting style, though not explicitly detailed in the sources, has been effective in his recent performances. With a professional record of 14-2, he has demonstrated his prowess in the Octagon. Notably, his victory via TKO against Nilson Oliveira at FFC 60 showcases his striking ability, a critical factor in his upcoming match. His finishing rate, with seven knockouts in his wins, indicates that he possesses significant power in his hands.

Padilla on the other hand, while he has a ton of high-level experience on the regional scene, he doesn't have one thing that stands out on paper. He is a well-rounded fighter on the feet and the mat but Llontop looks like he could just have covered a bit everywhere to get his first win inside the Octagon.

Why Chris Padilla Will Win

This lightweight bout between Chris Padilla and James Llontop is set to be a highlight of the event. Analyzing their skills and recent performances, several factors suggest that Chris Padilla could secure a win against Llontop.

Chris Padilla, known by his nickname “Taco,” brings a versatile and aggressive fighting style to the Octagon. With a professional record that includes seven wins by knockout and four by submission, Padilla has demonstrated his ability to finish fights both on his feet and on the ground. His significant strike defense and takedown defense are crucial metrics that indicate his capability to handle diverse fighting styles, which will be essential against Llontop.

Padilla's recent performances have been impressive, with a three-fight winning streak, including a notable TKO victory over UFC veteran Justin Jaynes in October 2023. This momentum is a critical factor, as confidence and recent cage time often translate to better performance. Moreover, Padilla's ability to secure nine first-round finishes showcases his capability to start fights strongly and aggressively, which could be pivotal in setting the pace against Llontop.

On the other hand, James Llontop, while having a strong record, has shown vulnerabilities in past fights, particularly in handling pressure from versatile strikers. Padilla's aggressive style and proficiency in both striking and grappling could exploit these weaknesses.

Furthermore, Padilla's background in grappling, where he has earned titles like the NAGA champion, complements his striking, giving him tools to control the fight both standing and on the mat. His favorite techniques, involving elbows and knees, are perfect for close-quarter combat, which could be decisive in the smaller UFC APEX facility.

Chris Padilla's recent form, combined with his striking prowess and grappling skills, positions him well to potentially overcome James Llontop at UFC Vegas 91. His ability to finish fights early and adapt to different fighting styles could be the key to his success in this matchup.

Final James Llontop-Chris Padilla Prediction & Pick

In this lightweight matchup, we have promotional newcomers James Llontop and Chris Padilla who are eager to get in there and get their first victory inside the Octagon. However, it's James Llontop's physical advantages, proven striking ability, and active competition schedule that position him as the favorite to win against Chris Padilla at UFC Vegas 91. His track record and recent TKO victory are indicators of his potential to emerge victorious in this lightweight clash.

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Final James Llontop-Chris Padilla Prediction & Pick: James Llontop (-440), Over 2.5 rounds (+140)