It is the start of week one of the College Football season as the Kent State Golden Flashes take on the UCF Knights. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Kent State-UCF prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

This could be a long season for Kent State. Last year Sean Lewis and the Kent State Golden Flashes won five games, including four in the conference.  After five wins, and their first losing record in four seasons, Lewis left to take over as a coordinator for Deion Sanders at Colorado. Then the exodus started. Twenty players left the program. Two starting offensive linemen went with Lewis to Colorado, while another tackle went to UCF. Their quarterback went to UCLA, while top wideout Dante Cephas went to Penn State. Even their kicker left, heading to Ohio State. In all, between transfers are graduation, the offense has been decimated. Overall, they return just 25 percent of their production from last year, the lowest in FBS.

UCF has some higher hopes as they move to the Big 12. Last year it was nine regular season wins, including six in the AAC. They lost the AAC title game and then their bowl game to Duke to end the year. UCF is bringing back plenty of talent this year as well. They are 51st in the nation in returning production, and sit 43rd in returning defense. The offense loses their top running back but brings back RJ Harvey, Johnny Richardson, and Demarkcus Bowman from a rushing offense that piled up 228 yards per game. John Rhys Plumlee is back at quarterback and will have top targets Javon Baker and Alec Holler. On defense, UCF brings back Ricky Barber and a solid defensive line. They also grabbed some solid transfers in the secondary who will be creating more turnovers for this squad.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Kent State-UCF Odds

Kent State: +36.5 (-110)

UCF: -36.5 (-110)

Over: 55.5 (-115)

Under: 55.5 (-105)

How to Watch Kent State vs. UCF

TV: FS1

Stream: Fox Sports APP

Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT

*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Kent State Will Cover The Spread

For Kent State, there are a lot of new parts to break in. That starts with their new quarterback Michael Alaimo. Alaimo spent his first two years at Purdue. Last year he grabbed some experience in three games and was right. He threw for 74 yards and a touchdown in his limited time. Still, coming out of high school, he has a lot of positives on his scouting report. He was a three-star prospect coming out of high school and is a good-sized quarterback who is a quality athlete. He is mobile and can evade passing rushers while moving the ball downfield. Alaimo has a good deep ball and is willing to run into contact when need be. If he can show what caused him to be a solid recruit out of Montvale, NJ, he could lead Kent State to easily cover this game.

Kent State will also bring in a duo of running backs that could cause some nightmares for teams. First is Ky Thomas. Last year at Kansas Thomas was limited by injuries, but he still ran for 162 yards and two touchdowns while also catching another one. In 2021 at Minnesota, he ran for 824 yards and six touchdowns. He has great speed and can make guys miss on the outside. Xavier Williams also returns from missing all of 2022. In 2021 he was solid for Kent State. He ran for 812 yards and three touchdowns that year. He has averaged over 4.5 yards per carry in each of his last three healthy seasons, including 6.5 yards per carry in 2021.

The major issue for this team will be the defense. They were 117th against the pass last year and 81st against the run while averaging over 29 points scored against them per game. One of the major issues last year was depth. With an offense that was quick to move the ball, resulting in short drives, the defense spent plenty of time on the field and their lack of depth showed. This year, with a new coaching staff, they will slow it down. They bring in two solid transfers at linebacker Khalil Saunders and Devin Nicholson. They should both make an impact in this game, along with Iowa transfer Dallas Craddieth. While they still have very little depth, if the offense can stay on the field, the starters are good enough to slow down teams at times.

Why UCF Will Cover The Spread

For UCF it all starts with John Rhys Plumlee. Last year he threw for 2,586 yards with 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He also can do work with his legs. Last year he ran for 862 yards with 11 scores. Still, he struggled some in big games, such as the bowl game against Duke. Again, level opponents, he thrived. Last year against South Carolina State, he threw for 308 yards and ran for 100 with a combined five touchdowns. Against FAU it was over 450 combined yards and three scores. Temple saw over 400 yards of Plumlee and seven touchdowns. Plumlee can put up huge numbers against suspect defenses.

RJ Harvey is back to help Plumlee in the backfield as well. Last year he ran for 796 yards and five scores. While he needs to replace Isaiah Bowser and his 16 touchdowns, he ran better on a down-per-down basis and in the open field. On 87 fewer carries, Harvey has just three fewer yards. He ran for 6.7 yards per attempt and was a big play machine. Johnny Richardson also was full of big plays when he got in. He ran for 370 yards, but that was on 6.9 yards per attempt last year.

On defense, Jason Johnson is back. Last year he led the team with 129 tackles and is a sideline-to-sideline linebacker who does not often get beat. Ricky Barber comes in from Western Kentucky, and while he is not a very disruptive presence, he is a solid tackler. He limits ball carries, and makes sure they do not get extra yardage. Tre'Mon Morris-Brash also is back. He had six sacks last year and 13 tackles for a loss. He should be getting to the quarterback regularly this year, which will create long-yardage situations and turnovers.

Final Kent State-UCF Prediction & Pick

Kent State was one of the worst defensive units in FBS last year and then lost a lot. UCF has a very explosive offense. It is going to be hard to stop John Rhy Plumlees in this game. He has made a habit of running up the stats and the score against bad teams. While there should be some hope for Kent State this year, with so much turnover, the hope will not show up this week. Take UCF and lay the points.

Final Kent State-UCF Prediction & Pick: UCF -36.5 (-110)