UCF is heading into its first year in the new Big 12, as they hope to continue their winning ways against some new foes. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a UCF football over/under win total prediction and pick.

Last year it was nine regular season wins, including six in the AAC. They lost the AAC title game and then their bowl game to Duke to end the year. Now Gus Malzahn enters his third year with the program, and he leads the Knights into Big 12 play. UCF is bringing back plenty of talent this year as well. They are 51st in the nation in returning production, and sit 43rd in returning defense. The offense loses their top running back but brings back RJ Harvey, Johnny Richardson, and Demarkcus Bowman from a rushing offense that piled up 228 yards per game. They bring in a new offensive coordinator in Darin Hinshaw who will keep that running game going. John Rhys Plumlee is back at quarterback and will have top targets Javon Baker and Alec Holler.

On defense, UCF brings back Ricky Barber and a solid defensive line. They will be looking to be more disruptive on the line of scrimmage this year. They also grabbed some solid transfers in the secondary who will be creating more turnovers for this squad. The Over/Under is set at 6.5, but will UCF regress that much in their new conference?

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: UCF Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 6.5 wins: -170

Under 6.5 wins: +138

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Why UCF Can Win 6.5 Games 

UCF brings back a lot of key talent from a team that won nine games last year. Yes, they did in the AAC and not the Big 12, but still, they have quality talent. UCF also has a fairly manageable non-conference schedule that should yield them some wins. They start with Kent State, who lost a ton of players in the transfer portal, and their head coach. UCF gets a win to start the season before traveling to Boise State. If UCF can sneak out a win here, hitting seven wins will be almost a done deal. Most likely they will not get a win on the Smurf turf though, and will look to bounce back the next week against Villanova. The end of the non-conference schedule places them at worst, 2-1, meaning only five conference wins are needed.

That schedule lines up nicely for them. They dodge TCU and also Texas in their only year sharing the conference. They also get to play familiar foes Houston and Cincinnati. UCF opens conference play at Kansas State. The Wildcats won the Big 12 last year but lost Deuce Vaughn, Malik Knowles, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, and Julius Brents. The defensive line may not be able to keep up with Plumlee and this rushing attack. This is a winnable game for UCF, as is the next week against Baylor at home. Baylor struggles on both lines and UCF gets another win here. They could potentially be 5-0 after this, but most likely 3-2.

Kansas and Oklahoma will bring them two straight losses, but they will then be favored and beat West Virginia. Then they travel to Cincinnati, which lost too much to be competing with UCF here. Oklahoma State may be set to have their first losing year under Gundy, and UCF grabs a third win in a row. Then it comes down to the last two games. Texas Tech should be a loss, but they will beat Houston to end the season. UCF is the best of the AAC teams moving over, and they get two wins against their former AAC foes.

Why UCF Can Not Win 6.5 Games

First, it will start with a loss on the Smurf Turf in Boise. Boise looked great at the end of last year and is poised to pick up where they left off. If they do that, they will beat UCF in this one. Then there is Kansas State and Baylor. There is a ton of promise on the Wildcat's roster this year, and even with losing their best pass rusher, they have others waiting in the wings. When Plumlee does not have time to get his feet set, he either gets happy and scrambles too much, or throws interceptions. That will happen in this game.

He will not have that issue with Baylor, but Baylor has too much on offense to contend with. UCF did not have a good secondary last year and lost key players they did have. Baylor will score plenty of points, and Plumlee is not the best quarterback to be riding in a shootout. With losses to Kansas and Oklahoma, UCF will be 2-5 at this point and need to win out to hit seven wins. The familiarity between Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF could easily result in a loss, but the big spot for a loss comes at Texas Tech.

Texas Tech is a well-rounded offensive unit, and Joey McGuire has this team improving every step of the way. They could be a sleeper to win the conference this year, and this will be loss number six for the Wildcats.

Final UCF Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

How UCF does against their old AAC foes will decide if they hit the over or not. They have to win both of them to get to the over. The last time the Big 12 added teams to the conference it was TCU and West Virginia for the 2012 season. Both of those teams picked up seven wins on the season. UCF is going to start this year 3-0, and also pick up wins over Houston, Cincinnati, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State in conference play. They finish 7-5 and hit the over.

Final UCF Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 6.5 (-170)