There's a new sheriff in Los Angeles. Following his trade from the Detroit Lions, quarterback Matthew Stafford will look to get the Rams over the hump this year in place of Jared Goff. For Stafford, it's a big change of scenery. While he's spent much of his career on bad teams with solid offensive talent that lent itself to big fantasy numbers, he now heads to last year's No. 1 defense, and gunslinging to play catch-up will most likely be rare.

In terms of fantasy, it'll be interesting to see how the elite defense, contrasting with the upgrades at receiver with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, will affect Stafford's numbers compared to last season. It's a huge deal, too, that running back Cam Akers, who was primed to be the Rams' workhorse this year, will miss the entire year with a torn Achilles tendon.

Sean McVay also loves the quick-hitting passing game, and so all the signs right now are pointing towards Stafford having, at minimum, as good of a year as 2020 in fantasy. Just how good will he be, though? Let's take a look.

2020 Fantasy Stats

Across all 16 games last year (though he left one after only 3 pass attempts), Matthew Stafford posted 4,084 passing yards, with 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His efforts were good enough for 270.56 fantasy points on the year, placing him as QB15 and a high-end QB2. Stafford provided one of the most stable floors for quarterbacks around his ADP, as there were only three games last year in which he scored less than 14 fantasy points.

The problem with Stafford was his strikingly uninspiring weekly ceiling. His highest point total all year was 27.1 in a Week 13 showdown with the Chicago Bears, and it was the only game last year in which he exceeded 24 fantasy points.

For Stafford, the concern lies in that he ranked top-10 in the league in passing yards among all QBs, played on a team that had the 30th ranked rushing attack by yardage, threw for more touchdowns than his career average (25.7 for full seasons) and still didn't really finish all that close to being a QB1 when all was said and done.

I'd like to believe that team circumstances are to take the majority of the blame for this problem. A weak running game can benefit quarterback numbers to an extent, but diminishing returns bring about a point wherein the offense becomes one-dimensional, and only lead to stalled drives and punts. For the Lions and Matthew Stafford, playing against a team with a well-rounded defense meant that any slump through the air essentially meant more reps for the special teams unit.

The Rams, who were 10th in rushing last year, should provide Stafford much-needed balance that might hurt his yardage totals, but will surely give him more chances to hit paydirt in the end zone.

2021 Fantasy Projections

Matthew Stafford has a great chance of living up to his ADP of 93 (QB11) on ESPN, as he's got great weapons around him and a scheme that's designed to get him easy throws in rhythm.

It was only 2019 that Jared Goff led the league in passing attempts as the Rams' quick-hitting passing game took away a lot of the plays that normally would be allotted to running the ball. 2021 could offer a very similar outcome, as the injury to Akers and the core wideout grouping of Woods and Kupp should continue to be formidable. This bodes well for Stafford, as, in the two seasons he has led the league in passing attempts, he averaged over 5,000 yards and 30 touchdowns per season.

I wouldn't expect numbers in that tier, but 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns isn't out of the realm of possibility. Goff is a much less talented QB than Stafford, but in McVay's scheme was still able to reach each of those two landmark statistics back in 2018. The Rams were already great last year, but Stafford could elevate them to new heights in 2021.

Rank at Position

At QB11, Matthew Stafford seems like a very safe pick. He will almost surely beat his ADP this year as long as he stays healthy, as the Rams' scheme simply seems incredibly efficient for a guy with his arm talent. Stafford has proven too good of a quarterback to fail with a bevy of weapons around him.

Because of Stafford's lack of mobility, however, his upside is capped. It took Stafford his only 5,000 yard season to finish (barely) as a top-5 quarterback in fantasy, which was all the way back in 2011. He most certainly will not be a top-5 quarterback; his ceiling figures to be around QB7 or so.

If your draft strategy is to create huge returns on value in the draft, Matthew Stafford probably isn't your guy. But if you need someone who is reliable, stays healthy, and has a team that will go as his arm goes, then he definitely is.