Jamaica hasn’t beaten Mexico since the 2017 Gold Cup, with Mexico winning three and drawing two in the five games since. Jamaica managed two consecutive draws in Nations League matches in 2022 and 2023, but their last game at the Gold Cup ended in a 3-0 win for Mexico. It is time to continue our Copa America odds series with a Mexico-Jamaica prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Mexico is entering this tournament after two straight losses against South American competition in friendlies at the beginning of June. Uruguay dominated them with a 4-0 victory, then Brazil outscored them 3-2 three days later. The usually tactically-sound Mexico can’t be happy about their problems defending, as they also lost a 2-0 match to the United States in a March Concacaf Nations League match. That is a total of nine goals allowed over their last four games, which includes a 1-0 victory over lowly Bolivia.

Jamaica’s run of form has been significantly better, albeit against weaker competition. They’ve won four of their last six matches, with the only loss coming in a 3-1 match against the United States in the Concacaf Nations League semifinal. The final score doesn’t tell the whole story, as Jamaica held a 1-0 lead in the final minute before USA tied it and then won the game in extra time. Jamaica would get more respect in this matchup if they held on for one more minute.

Here are the 2024 Copa America odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2024 Copa America Odds: Mexico-Jamaica Odds

Mexico: -160

Jamaica: +500

Draw: +270

Over 2.5 goals: +122

Under 2.5 goals: -148

How to Watch Mexico vs. Jamaica

Time: 9:00 pm ET/6:00 pm PT

TV: FS1

Stream: (Click Here for Free Trial)

Why Mexico Will Win

Mexico is the more skilled team in this matchup, and they have success against Jamaica to increase their confidence. Mexico is unbeaten against Jamaica in five consecutive matches, and Mexico’s last great result may have been in that match last July when they won 3-0. Jamaica presents a good chance for Mexico to get back on track.

Why Jamaica Will Win

There is one team with all the momentum heading into this matchup, and it isn’t the team that is a -160 favorite. Jamaica was a minute away from upsetting the United States in the Concacaf Nations League, which would have given them a run of 12 unbeaten matches heading into this tournament opener. The only other loss the Jamaicans have since July 2023 is the first leg of the Concacaf Nations League against Canada, which they then won in the second leg.

There is some worry that Jamaica’s loss last July was a 3-0 defeat to Mexico, but things have changed for both teams. Jamaica had the second-best dribble success rate among Concacaf teams during the Nations League, and their expected goals per shot was one of the highest in the tournament. Combine this with Mexico giving up seven goals in their two friendlies this month, and Jamaica’s offensive attack could have the advantage in this game.

Final Mexico-Jamaica Prediction & Pick

Taking Jamaica as a heavy underdog in this match has the potential to break our hearts, but that is why we’re going to go with two bets for this game. Jamaica can generate some offense in this matchup, but the question is whether they can fend off Mexico’s attack. If Jamaica doesn’t hold on for the win, the game should still go over 2.5 goals, which would help us get a profit.

However, the gem of this game will be Jamaica’s money line. Jamaica has been in better form and would not be as heavy underdogs if they hadn’t blown a lead against the United States in the final minute of the Nations League. Don’t overlook the coaching matchup either, as Helmir Hallgrimsson led Iceland to upsets in the 2016 Euros and 2018 World Cup.

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Final Mexico-Jamaica Prediction & Pick: Jamaica (+500) and Over 2.5 (+122)