The Miami Heat likely didn't envision following up an NBA Finals appearance with an 9-14 record to begin the ensuing season. Thus far, the 2020-21 NBA season has been a mess for the Heat. They've lost 10 of their last 15 games, have been without Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, and Tyler Herro for stretches due to both injuries and health protocols, and have struggled even in those players' presence. The Heat went into Monday 26th in the NBA in points per game (107.3).
All that said, it's unnecessary for the Miami Heat to be crushing the panic button. Here are three reasons why they'll overcome the rough start and return to the playoffs.
1) They're an unfinished product as a roster
Miami was rolling at the end of last season, but even in that moment they were an unfinished product, which they still are in the present.
It's a young roster. Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson are in just their second seasons as full-time starters while Herro and Kendrick Nunn are in the midst of their second NBA seasons.
This is also Butler's first time being in the same situation for back-to-back seasons since 2014 when he took on a substantial role with the Chicago Bulls in the wake of Derrick Rose's consecutive injury-riddled seasons. In the 2014-15 season Rose took back the reigns of the Bulls offense. Butler then overtook Rose as the go-to scorer.
Then Butler became the undisputed top gun when Rose was traded in 2016, which was followed by a trade to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the summer of 2017. His debut season in Minnesota was followed by him going berserk on the organization and subsequently being traded to the Philadelphia 76ers midseason and then signing with the Heat in the offseason. This is now year two of the Butler era in Miami.
Albeit winning the East is an enormous way to kick-start a new team, the 2019-20 Heat weren't a team that reached its potential. At times, you have to take a step back to take a step forward.
2) They're chasing young, inexperienced teams
Sure, there have been some surprise teams and/or young teams who have taken the next step in the East this season like the Atlanta Hawks, New York Knicks, and Charlotte Hornets. At the same time, these are teams who are yet to prove that they can play at a mere .500 level over an entire season.
Head coach Erik Spoelstra has blossoming youth (Adebayo, Herro) that is, generally speaking, more proven than the cores on some of the teams ahead of them in the conference. His rotation also has veteran players who complement the team's leading scorers (Butler, Adebayo, and Herro). Andre Iguodala is a respectable defender, Dragic is a savvy scorer, and big men Kelly Olynyk and Precious Achiuwa are athletic scorers.
Speaking of Dragic, he, Avery Bradley, Maurice Harkless, and Meyers Leonard are nursing injuries. This team getting close to full force will be huge.
While some of the teams the Heat are chasing are balanced and well-coached, they don't yet have the experience of closing out a playoff series or fending off others for a playoff spot. Miami does.
As is, Miami, the 12th seed in the East, is just two and a half games behind the five-seeded Indiana Pacers, who are .500. It's not as if they have a daunting mountain to climb. Their struggles have run parallel to other uber-talented or expected playoff contenders like the Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards and Orlando Magic.
3) They're too talented to fall off a cliff
The Miami Heat are too talented to endure a major regression.
Butler is a two-way star, Adebayo is a premier frontcourt player, Herro and Nunn are fearless, electric scorers, and Robinson is an elite shooter. Meanwhile, this rotation is well-versed with promising youth, players in their prime, and veterans with a knack for performing well in set roles.
They have vibrant scorers, efficient shooters, proven defenders, and a reputable coaching staff on their side. Few teams have all of those factors working in their favor, and it's too much to miss the playoffs. Now, whether they go on a deep playoff run is another story, but Miami has the arsenal to, at the very least, sneak into the spring festivities.
One way or another, you have to beat three good teams to win your respective conference. Whether they're the one seed or the eight seed, Miami has to go up against at least two of the likes of the Milwaukee Bucks, Brooklyn Nets, and Philadelphia 76ers to win the East again.
Last year the Heat overcame three respectable-to-potent teams in the Bucks, Boston Celtics, and Pacers as the fifth seed. They can do it again this year as the five seed or even some spots down. All you have to do is get in the mix.
The Miami Heat will make the playoffs. It will just take some more acclimating and seasoning for them to look like the well-oiled machine they were in the NBA bubble.
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