UFC 299 is rolling on and the action keeps coming from sunny Miami, Florida. We're set to bring you another betting prediction and pick for the Early Prelims as we'll see Michel Pereira and Michal Oleksiejczuk square off in the Middleweight (185) Division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Pereira-Oleksiejczuk prediction and pick.
Michel Pereira (29-11) has gone 7-2 under the UFC since 2019. He's currently on an extremely hot six-fight winning streak that most recently saw him finish a very dangerous prospect in Andre Petrovski. With a win here, he could be knocking on the door of a potential ranking, but he'll have to take down his toughest opponent to date. Pereira stands 6'1″ with a 73-inch reach.
Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-6) has gone 7-4 in the UFC since his arrival in 2017. He's 3-2 in his last fights coming in and he's gone win-loss-win during his last three. His last fight was a strong Round 1 KO over Chidi Njokuani as he fought as the big betting underdog. He comes into this one riding a similar underdog spot and will be looking for another upset. Oleksiejczuk stands 6'0″ with a 74-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC 299 Odds: Michel Pereira-Michal Oleksiejczuk Odds
Michel Pereira: -143
Michal Oleksiejczuk: +123
Over 1.5 rounds: -200
Under 1.5 rounds: +160
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Why Michel Pereira Will Win
Michel Pereira is currently riding one of the longer winning streaks within this Middleweight Division. Four of his last five fights have been won by way of decision and after an excitingly wild start to his career, Pereira has managed to dial in his fighting style and become a more patient striker. He's a crazy capoeira master by nature and will certainly throw some acrobatic flying strikes. However, he picks his shots much more carefully now and knows what it takes to win three rounds of a fight.
Michel Pereira will have all the physical advantages in this fight from his size and strength to his athletic abilities. His opponent doesn't do a ton of work in blocking kicks or using many of his own – Michel Pereira could see great success if he starts to pepper the legs and mix up his strikes to the body. We've seen Oleksiejczuk be compromised to the body before, so Pereira could benefit from wearing his gas tank with movement and throwing the occasional body kick. If his strikes can land with more impact, he should win this fight.
Why Michal Oleksiejczuk Will Win
Michael Oleksiejczuk came into his last fight as the sizable betting underdog against a much longer, taller fight in Chidi Njokuani. It didn't phase Oleksiejczuk, however, as he was able to quickly close the distance and pour his pressure onto Njokuani along the fence and finish the fight. He's very durable and he's never been knocked out in the UFC. He has lost by submission, however, so he'll have to be on high-alert if this fight hits the mat at any point.
Michal Oleksiejczuk will have the more technical boxing of these two fighters. He's much more consistent with his boxing output and he hits his significant strikes at a high rate while defending 62% of the shots thrown his way. He doesn't seem like he'd be too phased with Pereira throwing some unusual combinations his way, so expect Oleksiejczuk to keep it in the pocket and move forward with aggression as he usually does.
Final Michel Pereira-Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction & Pick
This will be a great fight to close the Early Prelims and given then success both of these guys have had recently, they could very well be fighting for a top-15 ranking, or at least an opponent within there. They're both coming in off impressive KO victories, so expect them to be swinging hard and looking for the same here.
Michel Pereira is certainly the better athlete here and with his diverse striking background, he'll be able to hit Oleksiejczuk with a much more varied attack throughout this fight. As long as he doesn't get ahead of himself and make a mental mistake that puts him in a bad spot, he should be able to circle around his opponent and land his shots with heavy damage.
Michal Oleksiejczuk, however, will keep marching forward no matter the opponent and he'll have the more sound game from his boxing standpoint. Avoiding clean lands will be key for him as he could overwhelm Pereira with his pressure in the later rounds.
While these fighters both have differing styles of striking, we should see that they'll be rather evenly matched on the feet. Michel Pereira will have the slightest advantage on the ground with six submission wins to his name and I can see him turning a bad spot on the ground into a submission opportunity late in this fight. Let's side slightly with Pereira as we focus our attention on the over for this fight.
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Final Michel Pereira-Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction & Pick: Michel Pereira (-143), Over 1.5 Rounds (-200)
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