The Cincinnati Reds take on the Chicago Cubs. Check out our MLB odds series for our Reds Cubs prediction and pick.
Graham Ashcraft takes the bump for the Reds, while Kyle Hendricks gets the start for the Cubs.
Graham Ashcraft has a 3.27 ERA. He didn't make his first start of the season until May 22, and he has logged seven starts this year. In his first four starts, Ashcraft produced a 1.14 ERA. He throws really hard, and he overpowered hitters in those early starts. He gave up just 15 hits in 23 2/3 innings. Then, in his next two starts in mid-June, Ashcraft finally ran into trouble. He gave up 10 runs combined in those two starts, pitching only 9 2/3 innings. His ERA soared to 3.51 on the basis of those two rough outings. Then, in his seventh and most recent start, Ashcraft regrouped. He pitched eight strong innings against the Giants on June 24, allowing only two runs. The obvious question emerges: Has Ashcroft made the fundamental adjustments he needs to make? Has he fully restored himself, and will he return to being the dominant pitcher he was in late May, when hitters weren't used to him? Or, are we entering a period in which Ashcraft is likely to be volatile and inconsistent? It's not easy to project which way he will go.
Kyle Hendricks has a 4.90 ERA and has endured a very rough season to this point. He posted a 5.47 ERA in the month of April and a 4.97 ERA in May. However, he might have discovered his best self in his most recent start. Last Friday, June 24, Hendricks blanked the Cardinals in 7 1/3 innings of vintage pitching. This is the man who was one of the best and most consistent pitchers in the National League for a few years. This was the cornerstone of a rotation and a rock of dependability. This was the old Kyle Hendricks, the masterful artist who found perfect location and changed his speeds brilliantly. This is the guy who had been in hibernation throughout the 2022 season but finally came out of his cave. Is this the man the Cubs will get for the rest of the season? They sure hope so. This game will show us if Hendricks really is back on the beam again.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Reds-Cubs MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Reds-Cubs Odds
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-166)
Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+138)
Over: 10.5 (-104)
Under: 10.5 (-118)
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Why The Reds Could Cover the Spread
Kyle Hendricks had one great start, but that doesn't prove he is back to being his old self on a regular basis. Graham Ashcraft has been a noticeably better starting pitcher this year, and by a wide margin. The Reds should love this matchup. Ashcraft can overpower hitters so much better than Hendricks can. The Reds and Cubs have thrown some haymakers at each other this season. After the Cubs dominated on Wednesday, everything is set up for the Reds to punch back on Thursday.
Why The Cubs Could Cover the Spread
After winning on Wednesday against Hunter Greene, the Cubs are already in a position where they know they can hit fastballs and high-velocity pitches. That's Hunter Greene's game. Graham Ashcraft is cut from similar cloth. The Cubs are not going to be intimidated by Ashcraft's hard and heavy heat.
Meanwhile, Kyle Hendricks found himself against the Cardinals last week. If he pitches anywhere close to how he did last Friday, the Cubs are going to walk away with a victory.
Final Reds-Cubs Prediction & Pick
If you don't trust either team, and you shouldn't, the best play is to go with the under, since Hendricks appears to be improving and Ashcraft is a solid pitcher in his own right.
Final Reds-Cubs Prediction & Pick: Under 10.5
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