The Eastern Conference Champion Miami Heat take the floor for the first time in the 2020-'21 regular season tonight, matching up with the Orlando Magic. That means it's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Heat-Magic prediction.
The Heat will be visitors in their first game, flying in to Amway Center to kick off the new campaign.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening lines.
NBA Odds: Heat vs. Magic Odds
Miami Heat -4.5 (-115)
Orlando Magic +4.5 (-105)
Over 216.5 Points (-110)
Under 216.5 Points (-110)
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
On a preliminary glance of the two teams rosters, it is obvious there is a serious talent gap between the Heat and the Magic.
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will be far and away the best players on the court in Orlando. You can make an argument for Vucevic taking the third spot, but the Heat's depth is clearly superior to the Magic's.
As Miami showed in the bubble last year, this depth carries them to a lot of their victories. Even if they didn't have the top player on the floor (see last year's postseason matchup against the Bucks), the ability to have multiple guys who can drop 20 points on any given night is an asset only a few teams have.
Additionally, the Heat were a very solid team against the spread last year. They finished with a record of 51-39-3 ATS in 2019-20, including a stretch of four straight games covering against the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers.
Last year, the oddsmakers criminally underrated the Heat to start the season. In the first ten games, the Heat went 7-3 ATS, and were single digit favorites against teams like the Pistons, Hawks, and Grizzlies.
It seems like the oddsmakers could be off to a similar start this year, and the Heat could repeat last year's start.
Why The Magic Could Cover The Spread
The Orlando Magic start the season with hopes of finishing 8th in the Eastern Conference like they did a year ago.
Orlando didn't make any major roster changes in the offseason. This should help with team continuity, but it doesn't really push the needle in the playoff hunt.
Last year, the Heat and Magic played four times. While the Heat took the series 3-1, the Magic covered twice.
One of these covers was a 105-85 thumping of the Heat, which happened to be the first matchup of the season between the Florida rivals.
The Magic need to pull off another shock like that in order to cover tonight.
If the Heat show any sign of fatigue from the quick turnaround after their Finals run, the Magic could pounce and make this a defensive slugfest. Keep the Heat shooters in check and make them grind for every bucket, and Orlando has a chance at making this a close one.
Final Heat-Magic Prediction
Overall, a 4.5 point spread seems disrespectful to the reigning Eastern Conference Champs. I would not be shocked to see this end in a Heat double-digit victory. The clear gap in talent between the two rosters should shine through for the Heat in the opener.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: MIA 110, ORL 98
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