NFL Wild Card Weekend has finally arrived, and one of the most anticipated match-ups will take place Saturday night, as the Washington Football Team host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The NFL odds for this game are also now available, which is why we're here.
As is often the case with the 4-5 matchup, these two teams had two completely different seasons.
Tampa Bay had their ups and downs and didn't reach their lofty expectations, they are one of the hottest teams in football and enter this game with 11-5.
While Tampa Bay was led by one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history this season, Washington has started 4 different quarterbacks this season, and couldn't make it to a winning record despite playing in the NFL's worst division, finishing the season with a 7-9 record.
Brady's Bucs are a heavy favorite heading into this matchup, as Washington is only the third team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a losing record.
Despite this mediocrity, the last two teams to enter the playoffs without being able to reach 8 wins (the 2010 Seattle Seahawks and the 2014 Carolina Panthers) both won their Wild Card games.
This may be a fluke, but let's see if Washington can make below-.500 teams winning in the playoffs a trend this weekend.
NFL Odds: Buccaneers @ Washington
Buccaneers -8 (-110)
Washington +8 (-110)
Over 44.5 points scored (-108)
Under 44.5 points scored (-112)
(Odds via BetOnline.AG as of the morning of Friday, Jan. 8)
Why Tampa Bay can cover the spread
Momentum is key when entering the NFL playoffs, and Tampa Bay is one of the hottest teams in football, winning their last four games by a combined margin of 148-75.
While all four of those games were against teams with weak defenses that are currently not in playoffs, the Bucs have looked dominant against other playoff teams as well, thrashing the Green Bay Packers 38-10 in Week 6.
Tampa Bay has been able to win 11 games this season thanks to a high-powered offense, as they have scored 38 points or more six times this season and averaged 30.8 points per game, the third-best mark in the NFL.
While all the teams Tampa Bay have lost to this season are currently in the playoffs, they take care of business against teams with a losing record, going 10-0 against teams below .500, with seven wins by 12 or more points.
This playoff run is the reason Tampa Bay signed Tom Brady this offseason, as when surrounded with weapons like Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski, the Bucs could very well put up 40 points in this game, and Washington isn't built to compete in a shootout.
Why Washington can cover the spread
As dominant as the Bucs have been on offense this season, Washington has been the exact opposite. Typically when starting four different quarterbacks over the course of a season, your offense isn't going to succeed.
Alex Smith, who is slated to start this week, has been limited in practice for part of this week, as well as his two best offensive weapons in Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin.
Even if he is Smith for this matchup, with his inability to move out of the pocket, the Bucs have elite pass rushers in Ndamukong Suh, Shaquil Barrett and Lavonte David who could make his life hell on Saturday night.
While the Washington offense has been less than stellar this season, the dominance of their defense is why they're in the playoffs.
Ranking third in DVOA , second in yards allowed per game, and fourth in points per game, Washington wins because they know how to pressure the quarterback with one of the best trios at defensive end with rookie sensation Chase Young, Montez Sweat and Ryan Kerrigan.
Tom Brady struggles under pressure, as per Pro Football Focus, his adjusted completion percentage has plummeted from 79.3 percent with a clean pocket to 57.9 percent when under pressure.
Washington pressuring Brady and getting a few sacks in key situations would be the recipe for Washington to cover the spread here.
Final NFL Odds Prediction
I really want to pick Washington here, as it's never fun to root for Tom Brady to do well.
I do think we see a big game from Young in primetime, and I wouldn't be shocked if early pressure leads to a first-half interception to give Washington some semblance of a lead in the first half.
Time and time again, the hottest teams in football stay hot in the Wild Card round. Even if Mike Evans doesn't play in this game, the Washington offense can't even hold a candle to Tampa Bay's firepower.
Alex Smith is one of best stories in football over the last few seasons, but with the severity of his leg injury, his inability to maneuver under pressure will drastically hurt the Football Team.
I would look into betting on Washington to cover the first half, but expect Brady to put up three passing touchdowns in the second half as the Bucs look ahead to playing the top-seeded Packers in round 2.
Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay 34-Washington 13
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