The Montreal Canadiens are rolling into the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals riding a pumpkin ride. Will they be able to complete their Cinderella run in the Finals against the Tampa Bay Lightning? Who gets the early 1-0 series lead?  It’s time to continue our NHL odds series and make a Canadiens-Lightning Game 1 prediction and pick.

Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Canadiens-Lightning odds.

NHL Odds: Canadiens-Lightning Game 1 Odds

Montreal Canadiens +176

Tampa Bay Lightning -196

Over 5.0 goals (-121)

Under 5.0 goals (+110)

Why The Canadiens Could Cover The Spread

The single biggest reason why the Canadiens have made the trek all the way to the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals is their netminder, Carey Price. The one-time winner of the Vezina Trophy has done an absolutely beautiful job in front of the net for the Habs in these playoffs. For starters, Price will enter the series against the Lightning carrying a 12-5-0 slate, a 2.02 goals against average, and a .934 percentage.

The playoffs have brought the best out of Price, and sometimes, all a team really needs to be the last one standing in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is a goalie that got hot at just the right time. But it's hardly just Price doing magic for Montreal. Those in front of Price is also making things happen. Take for example the top line of Artturi Lehkonen, Philip Danault, and Brendan Gallagher. The trio has played great on both ends of the ice, perhaps better defensively.

Danault hasn't scored yet in this postseason, but he's helped silence the top forwards of the other teams they've faced. Auston Matthews, Kyle Connor, and Mark Stone all struggled mightily against the Habs' first unit that has the best expected goals percentage in the playoffs among all offensive lines with at least 100 minutes played together. It should also be mentioned here that Montreal's penalty kill has shut down 93.5 percent of power-play chances by their opponents since the end of the regular season.

You can read my piece on why the Montreal Canadiens will win the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals here.

Why The Lighting Could Cover The Spread

What if we told you that there's been a goalie who's been better than Price in the playoffs? That would be Andrei Vasilevskiy, who's brought his consistency from the regular season to the postseason. Since the playoffs started, Vasilevskiy has garnered a 12-6-0 record in 18 starts. He also has a .936 saves percentage and a 1.99 goals against average. He leads all playoff goalies with four shutouts, with no other netminder tallying more than two.

The Russian should make life hard for the Habs, whose offense isn't quite as great as the Bolts'. While the Bolts average 3.22 goals per game in the playoffs, Montreal is only finding the back of the net just 2.53 times per contest. While the Canadiens are confident in their Danault line, they haven't dealt with a force like the Lightning's lethal first line that boasts of the trio of Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov.

Point has been out of his mind in these playoffs with 14 goals and six assists, while Palat and Kucherov have a combined output of nine goals and 27 assists. It's going to be tough for Montreal to outscore Tampa Bay that also has elite second and third lines that feature the likes of Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn, and Yanni Gourde.

You can read my piece on why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals here to help you make a Canadiens Lightning Prediction.

Final Canadiens-Lightning Game 1 Prediction & Pick

The Lightning have the home-ice advantage in the series, so playing in Tampa right out of the gate is already a significant advantage for the team. The Bolts will capitalize on that, win the possession battle, and get excellent performance from Vasilevksiy, who won't be as busy as Price. That said, the Habs will keep this one close enough to cover the puck line.

FINAL PICK:  Montreal Canadiens 1.5 (-164)