For the fourth time in the history of franchise history and second since 2020, the Tampa Bay Lightning have won the Prince of Wales Trophy and are going to the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals after edging the pesky New York Islanders in seven games in the semis. Their mission is clear: to become the newest member of the exclusive club of back-to-back Stanley Cup champions. If they end up lifting the Cup at the end of the best-of-seven series against the Montreal Canadiens, it would mean another victory parade in Tampa, which had just celebrated a Super Bowl win by Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers earlier this year. 

Not a few hockey fans are feeling resentment toward the Lightning after the way Tampa Bay seemed to have capitalized on a certain loophole that allowed the team to — sort of — go over the cap. They can say all they want about the Lightning, but at the end of the day, this is an extremely talented team that’s deep, experienced, and consistent — some of the qualities that could ultimately determine why they will be the ones kissing the Stanley Cup while skating around with it instead of the Cinderella, Montreal Canadiens.

Superior goalie

The 2021 Stanley Cup Finals could end up being determined by which team will have the better man in front of the net. The Canadiens have Carey Price, who’s peaking at the right time in the playoffs after a pedestrian regular season that reinforced the idea that his career is obviously on the way down. The Canadiens wouldn’t have gone this far without the heroics of Price. But as good as Price has been in the previous rounds, Andrei Vasilevskiy is simply better in the playoffs, the more dependable former Vezina Trophy winner between the pipes. 

Vasilevskiy had not recorded a shutout in any of his first 57 appearances in the playoffs, but in this playoffs alone, he’s already come up with five shutouts. Jon Cooper can go to sleep the night before a potential series-clinching game with full confidence that Vasilevskiy will be putting up a huge performance the following day. 

Vasilevskiy has recorded a shutout in all three series-winning games for the Lightning in the playoffs, including the 1-0 nail-biter of a victory over the New York Islanders at home in Game 7 of their semifinals matchup in which he stopped all 18 shots by the Islanders.

In  18 starts in this postseason, Vasilevskiy has a 12-6 record and a 1.99 GAA (No. 2 among all goalies with at least seven appearances), a .936 SV% (No. 1), and four shutouts (No. 1). Outside of the win-loss record, Vasilevskiy has Price in his rearview mirror in all those basic categories. Even in the advanced stats department, Vasilevskiy has Price lagging behind him. Among netminders with five appearances in the 2021 NHL Playoffs, Vasilevskiy tops everyone with his 36.47 expected goals against percentage (xGA%) in 5-on-5 situations. His 10.5  goals saved above (GSAA [5 on 5]) of 10.5 in the playoffs is No. 1 as well.

While Price’s postseason performance is viewed with some surprise, Vasilevskiy’s competency in these playoffs is not, considering that he’s been doing this all season long. 

The Brayden Butter Lightning line

The Canadiens passed the test against the Golden Knights in large part because of the way they manhandled Vegas’ first line — particularly Mark Stone. The forward led the Golden Knights in the regular season with 61 points but was embarrassingly held without a goal or an assist the entire series against Montreal. 

The Canadiens’ top line with Phillip Danault has been shutting down top forwards in the playoffs. In the first round, Montreal made Auston Matthews look like a giant waste of money, with the Toronto Maple Leafs center coughing up just one goal overall. Kyle Connor, who led the Winnipeg Jets in the regular season with 26 goals, scored in Game 1 of the second round and never found the net again the rest of the way.

But Danault’s line’s dominance could come to an end in the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals against the Lightning’s first line that features Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. The Islanders series was a telling one as to why the Bolts’top unit will be just fine against Montreal. In that series, the Islanders played Tampa Bay very tight, as though they were paid by the Lightning to mimic Montreal in a seven-game sparring session. 

And guess what, Palat still had four points (two goals, two assists), Point made brains explode with eight points (six goals, two assists), while Kucherov went scoreless but had nine assists. Even if you remove their numbers from their  anomalous Game 5 8-0 win, the three still had 12 points together.  All those checking from the Islanders didn’t stop the Lightning from having a 13.17 xGF, the highest among semifinals teams. Furthermore, among all skaters in the playoffs, Point and Palat are No. 1 and No. 8 in xG with 6.8 and 5.5, respectively.

If there’s a unit that will put a stop to Montreal’s ways, it’s this.

Power (Point) Play 

The matchup of Montreal’s penalty kill against Tampa Bay’s power-play attack is one that can’t be missed. Still on Point, the Lightning center has seven power-play goals in the playoffs. As a team, Tampa Bay has scored 20 times on the man advantage across 53 chances for a 37.7 PP%, No. 2 in the postseason. Meanwhile, Montreal’s playoff penalty kill has been next to perfect, as it owns a 93.5 PK%

So what happens when an unstoppable force (Tampa Bay’s PP) meets an immovable object (Montreal’s PK) collide? 

Assuming that the Canadiens will have success for the most part against Tampa Bay’s power play, their special teams could still end up losing overall. The Habs are way worse on the power play (20.9 PP% ) than Tampa Bay in these playoffs and that almost sting-less PP by Montreal could be easily shut down by the Lightning’s elite penalty kill (83 PK%). It’s not as good as Montreal’s, but it’s up there definitely.