The good times stopped rolling for the Edmonton Oilers last Sunday after a five-game undefeated streak, but a chance to rebound comes to Connor McDavid and company later tonight when they face off with the defending Stanley Cup Champions, Tampa Bay Lightning. The Oilers are still desperate for points, as they are precariously perched on the third spot of the Pacific Division – tied with the Los Angeles Kings with 59 points apiece. As for the Lightning, they could afford more to lose with 70 points already secured in their bank. It’s been nearly two years since these two teams met on the ice. How will Wednesday’s showdown end up? With that said, it’s a good time to check out our NHL odds series, which includes our Oilers-Lightning prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.

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Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Oilers-Lightning odds:

NHL odds: Oilers-Lightning Odds

Oilers: +1.5 (-142)

Lightning: -1.5 (+116)

Over: 6.5 (-114)

Under: 6.5 (-106)

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Why the Oilers Could Cover the Spread 

The Oilers finally hit the proverbial brick wall every team eventually hits after a winning streak, as Edmonton slammed into the Minnesota Wild Sunday night in a 7-3 home loss. That loss shouldn’t upstage the success Edmonton is having under new head coach Jay Woodcroft, who guided the team to five wins in a row in his first five games as Dave Tippett’s replacement. Under Woodcroft, the Oilers’ offense has functioned like a…uhm…well-oiled machine – notwithstanding the Minnesota game. Through their last six games, the Oilers have scored a total of 25 goals to just 15 by their opponents, with the latter figure getting skewed by a bad defensive stand against the Wild. The sample size may still be small, but the positive impact of Woodcroft on the team can’t be denied.

This season, the Oilers are middling with a 53 CF%, but they have managed a 58 CF% in the last six outings. Losing to Minnesota cooled the Oilers down, but two days of rest in between that and Wednesday’s meeting with Tampa Bay must be enough for Connor McDavid and company to rinse the bitter taste of that loss in their mouth.  The Oilers are pretty successful this season when they are coming off a particularly horrible defensive performance, as evidenced by the fact that they are 4-1 in games after a game in which they surrendered at least five goals. After getting pulled in the Minnesota game, 39-year-old vet Mike Smith is likely to get another start tonight. In his last road start, Smith turned away 37 of 38 shots in a 5-2 victory over the Los Angeles Kings last week.

Why the Lightning Could Cover the Spread

Unlike Edmonton, there is no coaching change for the Lightning because Jon Cooper is one of the best in the business. Tampa Bay is in cruise control of late, having won 11 of their last 14 games. They have not lost consecutively in 2022 and will be looking to win their third game in a row Wednesday night. Tampa Bay avoided embarrassment by beating the Arizona Coyotes in the desert, 4-3, last Friday and then crushed the New Jersey Devils on the road Tuesday, 6-3. The Lightning return to home ice tonight where they are 16-4-1-3 on the season. Tampa Bay isn’t a top-five scoring team this season but is still a solid eighth with 3.41 goals for per contest. The Bolts are as dominant in controlling the puck as the likes of the Florida Panthers and the Calgary Flames, as they sit outside the top 10 of CF%, but they still are very adept at creating prime scoring opportunities.

In fact, Tampa Bay is fourth in 5-on-5 High Danger Scoring Chance rate (54.3%), thanks to an elite group of top-six forwards. Among them is veteran center Steven Stamkos, who is pacing the team with 23 goals and 55 points this season. Four of the Lightning’s top-six forwards scored a point against New Jersey, including Stamkos who had a goal, and Nikita Kucherov who collected a goal and an assist. Tampa Bay’s sleeping power play could also be due for a big performance against the Oilers. The Lightning are 0/7 on the man advantage in their last three games, while Edmonton has allowed 11 power play goals in 12 tries by its past three opponents.

Final Oilers-Lightning Prediction & Pick

The Oilers’ newfound momentum under Woodcroft has fans buzzing about Edmonton again, but the team failed to pass the test against a legitimately good team in Minnesota. These Lightning are even better and could serve Woodcroft another dose of reality about how it isn’t really that easy to steer an NHL team. Edmonton also has a few injuries that could hurt their chances to keep in step with Tampa Bay. I'm going with Tampa Bay for my Oilers-Lightning prediction.

Final Oilers-Lightning Pick: Lightning: -1.5 (+116)