The Toronto Maple Leafs head back home for a mini two-game home stint, starting against a hot Pittsburgh Penguins team. Toronto is coming off of a three-game Pacific Northwest road trip, coming out of it 1-2, as they look to get things back on track at home tonight. They currently sit in 3rd place in the Atlantic Division with 65 points, while on the other hand, Pittsburgh is on top of the Metropolitan Division with 70 points. Who’s going to walk away with the much-needed two points tonight? It’s time to continue our NHL odds series with a Penguins-Maple Leafs prediction and pick.

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Here are the Penguins-Maple Leafs NHL Odds, Courtesy of FanDuel

NHL Odds: Penguins-Maple Leafs Odds

Pittsburgh Penguins: +1.5 (-192) (+130 ML)

Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+154) (-156 ML)

Over: 6.5 (+100)

Under: 6.5 (-122)

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Why The Penguins Can Cover The Spread/Win

The Penguins are coming off of a massive comeback overtime victory against their long-time rival, the Philidelphia Flyers on Tuesday as superstar captain, Sidney Crosby potted his 500th career goal. However, tonight they face an offensive-heavy Maple Leafs team who is ready to get back in the win column. The Penguins are at full health, which is a rare sight to see, but they’re ranked ninth-best in the league in terms of offensive output, and it’s not just the usual suspects of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Jake Guentzel who are pulling their weight.

Tristan Jarry has been playing fantastic in net for the Penguins as he looks to get another starting opportunity here. He’s 25-8-6 with a .925 save percentage and only allowing 2.20 goals against so far this season. Pittsburgh will look to lean on him once again as they will need to outscore Toronto if they want to head back home with a victory.

Why The Maple Leafs Can Cover The Spread/Win

If Toronto can draw penalties and find themselves on the power play, they’re going to win games – it’s just that simple. The Maple Leafs’ power-play unit is first in the league with a 31.5% efficiency and continues to capitalize on the man-advantage opportunities. Of course, most of Toronto’s offensive production comes from superstars Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Hylander, but the team’s defense and goaltending is where things start to struggle. The Maple Leafs have been known for having a “the best defense is a better offense” mentality for a couple of years now, and it’s showing. Goaltender Jack Campbell will get the start tonight as he looks to put his recent woes behind him.

On the season, Campbell is allowing 2.38 goals against per game and sporting a .921 save percentage. He’ll look to keep the Maple Leafs in the game tonight and hope that the help in front of him can produce accordingly.

Final Penguins-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick

This matchup is a tough one. Both teams have a ton of talent, but mainly on offense, so this result could go either way. However, because they both have offensive efficiency, I kind of like the over. Sure, it’s a bit of a high number, but when the odds are +100 for the over, you have to take it. While Pittsburgh definitely has an edge when it comes to defense, the high-powered offenses of both teams, especially Toronto’s power-play unit, will continue to produce goals; hopefully enough to cover the total point spread tonight. Life is too short to bet the under, so take the over, especially when it’s in plus-money.

Final Penguins-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick: Over 6.5 (+100)