It is the first round of the Big 12 tournament as Oklahoma State faces UCF. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Oklahoma State-UCF prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Oklahoma State enters the game as the 13 seed in the Big 12 Tournament. They finished the year 12-19, with a 4-14 record in conference play. They have also lost five in a row. There have been some closer losses, as they lost by just two to Oklahoma, and by six to UCF in there.
Meanwhile, UCF is the 12 seed in the Big 12 tournament. They were 16-14 on the year and 7-11 in conference play. They have won three of their last five, last time out, holding off TCU to take the win. The two losses were to Iowa State and Houston, both by under ten points. These two teams faced off just once in the regular season. Oklahoma State had the lead at half, but a strong second half would give UCF the 77-71 victory.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Oklahoma State-UCF Odds
Oklahoma State: +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +140
UCF: -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -170
Over: 135.5 (-110)
Under: 135.5 (-110)
How to Watch Oklahoma State vs. UCF
Time: 12:30 PM ET/. 9:30 AM PT
TV: ESPN+
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Oklahoma State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Oklahoma State sits 107th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are 117th in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting 115th in adjusted defensive efficiency this year. They sit 221st in the nation in points per game this year but are 133rd in effective field goal percentage. Javon Small leads the offense this year. He averages 14.9 points per game this year but is shooting 44.1 percent from the field. Small also leads the way in assists per game this year, coming into the game with 4.2 assists per game this year. Meanwhile, Bryce Thompson is second on the team with 11.6 points per game this year, still, he has not played since the end of January. Further, Eric Dailey is shooting well. While he is averaging just 9.3 points per game, he is shooting 50.0 percent from the field this year.
Oklahoma State is 253rd in the nation in rebounds per game this year. They are 190th in the nation in defensive rebounding rate though. Quion Williams leads the way here, coming into the game with 5.5 rebounds per game, while also scoring 7.6 points per game this year. Brandon Garrison has also been solid on the boards, with 5.4 as well rebounds per game, while scoring 7.5 points per game this year.
Oklahoma State is 175th in opponent points per game this year. They are also 236th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Garrison has been solid on defense as well this year. He comes in with 1.4 blocks per game this year, while also having .8 steals per game. Meanwhile, Quion Williams has 1.1 steals per game this year.
Why UCF Will Cover The Spread/Win
UCF comes in ranked 60th in the nation in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are 159th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency. UCF is 220th in the nation in points per game this year while sitting 284th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. Jaylin Sellers leads the offense. He comes in with 16.0 points per game this year while shooting 42.4 percent from the field. Second on the team is Darius Johnson. Johnson has 14.8 points per game this year but also leads the team in assists, with 3.7 per game on the season.
UCF is 61st in the nation in rebounds per game this year. They are 52nd in the nation in offensive rebounding rate while sitting 104th in defensive rebounding rate. Ibrahima Diallo leads the way. He comes in with 5.6 rebounds per game this year, while also having 6.2 points per game. Meanwhile, CJ Walker comes in with 4.9 rebounds per game, second on the team. Further, six other players come in with over three rebounds per game.
UCF is 35th in the nation in opponent points per game. They are also 18th in the nation in steals per game while sitting 17th in blocks per game this year. Darius Johnson and Sehmarri Allen lead the way in steals. Johnson comes in with 2.3 steals per game this year, while Allen has 1.8 steals per game this year. Further, Diallo has 1.8 blocks per game, while Omar Payne has 1.4 blocks per game.
Final Oklahoma State-UCF Prediction & Pick
Not only is Oklahoma State losing, they are not even covering the spread. While losing five straight games, they have yet to cover the spread in any of them. UCF has covered in fourth of their last five games. Further, they have a strong defense, which Oklahoma State will struggle with. While Oklahoma State can be effective on offense, they will not be effective enough to cover in this one. UCF will be moving on to face BYU on Wednesday with a win in this game.
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Final Oklahoma State-UCF Prediction & Pick: UCF -3.5 (-110)
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