The Pirates make the trip to Atlanta to face the Braves! These two teams are very different with the Pirates struggling to find consistency and the Braves being one of the best teams in the MLB. However, the Pirates enter this matchup as the hotter team overall. Our MLB odds series has our Pirates-Braves prediction, odds, and pick for Friday.
Pirates-Braves Projected Starters
Martin Perez vs. Charlie Morton
Martin Perez (1-3) with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched three innings and gave up one run on four hits with two walks and two strikeouts in a Pirates loss.
2024 Road Splits: (1-1) 4.88 ERA
Charlie Morton (4-4) with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched 5.2 innings and gave up five runs on five hits with five walks and four strikeouts in a Braves loss.
2024 Home Splits: (2-2) 4.12 ERA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Braves Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-154)
Moneyline: +140
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+128)
Moneyline: -166
Over: 9 (-104)
Under: 9 (-118)
How to Watch Pirates vs. Braves
Time: 4:10 pm ET
TV: Bally Sports South / SportsNet Pittsburgh
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Pirates have been inconsistent this season on their way to a 39-41 record. They have also won two straight leading into this series. They have struggled behind the plate, but their pitching has been average and in the middle of the pack this season. Connor Joe, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, and Jack Suwinski have been solid behind the plate despite the offensive struggles as a whole. Bailey Falter, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller have been solid for the pitching staff. It is also worth noting that Paul Skenes has been great in a limited capacity. The Pirates have struggled to find consistency all this season and it's the main thing holding them back.
The Pirates are starting Paul Skenes on the mound. He has a 4-0 record, a 2.14 ERA, and a 0.99 WHIP. Through 46.1 innings, he has allowed 11 runs on 38 hits with eight walks and 61 strikeouts. He has started in eight games this season, and the Pirates have gone 6-2 in those games. He has been great in his limited time on the mound so far this season. He gets a big challenge in this game against a talented Braves offense, even though they have fallen off from where they initially were.
The offense for the Pirates has struggled this season. They are 27th in the MLB in-team batting average at .229 after having a batting average of .239 last season. Bryan Reynolds is the leader in almost every batting category. Reynolds leads in batting average at .279, in home runs at 13, in RBI at 46, in OBP at .345, and in hits at 90. This is a difficult matchup for a struggling offense because Max Fried has been great for the Braves on the mound.
Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Braves have come out strong during the season. They are 44-35 but have lost three out of their last four games and they come into this game losing two straight games. Their offense has taken a massive dip and is around average after being one of the best in the league. Their pitching has stayed very good this season as a top-10 unit. Max Fried, Reynaldo Lopez, and Chris Sale have all had varying levels of success up to this point. On offense, Marcell Ozuna has dominated at the plate for Atlanta, with Orlando Arcia, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris II not far behind. The Braves have lost some steam recently, but still have a lot of talent overall.
The Braves are starting Max Fried to start on the mound. He has a 7-3 record, a 3.00 ERA, and a 1.07 WHIP. He has allowed 33 runs on 69 hits with 27 walks and 80 strikeouts through 90 innings. He has started in 15 games so far this season and the Braves are 11-4 in those games. Fried has had a great season in Atlanta so far this season. He gets a favorable matchup against the Pirates and how much they have struggled behind the plate.
The Braves offense has taken a dip recently and is 16th in the MLB in batting average up to this point in the season at .243. They have dipped a bit after leading the entire MLB in batting average last season at .276. Marcell Ozuna has been great for the Braves to open the season and leads the way in most batting categories. Ozuna leads the way in batting average at .303, in home runs at 21, in RBI at 64, in OBP at .382, and in total hits at 89. The Braves offense can compete with anyone in the league based on their talent, but they get a difficult matchup against rookie sensation Paul Skenes who has been dominant up to this point in the season.
Final Pirates-Braves Prediction & Pick
The Braves are the better team overall because of their offense. The pitching matchup is much closer with how well Skenes has played, but Fried is having a great year in his own right. This should be close and the Pirates should cover on the road, even if the Braves still win a close one at home.
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Final Pirates-Braves Prediction & Pick: Pirates +1.5 (-154)