There are legitimate reasons why the Houston Rockets should trade Christian Wood by the upcoming trade deadline. But based off prior experience of trying to broach this subject with Rockets fans, it was known this would be a polarizing stance. Even with that knowledge in mind, it's hard to anticipate the volume of reactions this piece ended up getting.
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— Drip (@Br0Th1nkH3Cart1) December 13, 2021
Even though fans of a rebuilding team should not get attached to players, they're entitled to do whatever they want. Sports fandom is a deeply personal experience, so it's not right to chastise fans for ignoring the argument on a potential trade. It has become clear that a significant portion of the Rockets' fan base does not want to part ways with Christian Wood. They've been vocal about this since last season, and that's perfectly fair.
It's also perfectly fair to rate the best and worst arguments for Houston to keep Wood, so that's what we're doing today.
Reasons for Houston Rockets to keep Christian Wood
1. A fair trade for Christian Wood isn't available at the moment
I just don’t see that many teams who have both (A) the need for Wood *and* (B) the assets to meet a “Vucevic-level” asking price.
MAYBE the Kings – Mitchell, Bagley as filler, plus pick(s)?
Having trouble finding matches that make sense. Even the Kings would be a weird fit.
— David Weiner (@BimaThug) December 12, 2021
This is the best argument anyone could make for wanting the Rockets to keep Wood. As said in the original piece, the Rockets should aim for a Nikola Vucevic return if they do move Wood at the deadline. Houston shouldn't rush to a trade and accept table scraps if that's all that's out there. If the Rockets do their due diligence and finds that the market is bearish on Wood, they shouldn't move him. Organizations have to be cold and calculated if they want to manage successful rebuilds, and that includes tolerating awkwardness when deals fall through.
It's possible that there isn't a strong buyer's market for centers. It's also possible that the seller's market will be unusually competitive this year. Both are unknown until we get to the final weeks of February. Houston should at least be canvassing the league for interest on Wood, though, as this is the peak of his value. At the next deadline, he'll be on an expiring contract.
2. Christian Wood is a decent fall-back plan for Houston's 2023 cap space
Even though there's personal disagreement with this argument, the logic that it's built on is pretty strong. The Rockets are shaping up to have two max cap slots in 2023 that they can use to chase all kinds of free agents. As most front offices do, they've already started planning for it and have an idea for the kinds of players they want to target with that money. There are a lot of intriguing names available that year, but no guarantee that Houston will land any of them.
So what though, right? They can just sign players to hit the salary floor and have the space roll over, or at least that's how it often goes when you swing and miss. Houston's situation is different, however. The Rockets have already started acquiring some of the high-ceiling young talent that they might like to pay max contracts to: Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun, for example. Unless they've missed on all their draft picks, Houston will have significant rookie extensions kicking in as soon as 2024.
This means the Rockets effectively have one year to use this money and then it's gone. They have every incentive to sign players to sign long-term contracts that summer. And this is where Wood comes in. If they swing and miss on all of their top targets, Wood isn't a terrible guy to spend money on as a consolation prize that summer.
However, Wood will likely demand a number that's going to be tough for a team like Houston to swallow. And keeping a guy around so he can maybe stick around doesn't seem prudent.
3. Alperen Sengun and Christian Wood can both play together
This is probably the weakest argument. So far, all of the data tells us that Sengun and Wood lineups are still in the red (-12.5 points per 100 possessions). This aligns with what we've seen and thought about every two-big lineup Houston has thrown out this season. The poor floor spacing from playing two bigs compromises the offense, while the limited lateral quickness of playing without a modern-day power forward like Jae'Sean Tate compromises the defense.
There's reason to have confidence in Wood and Sengun's jumpers going into the future. However, when you picture the maximized version of both players, can you honestly say that either are anything but centers? Wood is an awesome screen and dive big man who can space the floor if needed. When playing with Sengun, he becomes a spacing big who can screen and dive if needed.
Sengun's ideal role in the NBA is what we saw against the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night: a center who uses brute force to score in the paint or be a vacuum for a floor spaced with shooters in every direction. He's also such a good passer that it's hard to envision not surrounding him with four shooters. He's an offensive hub, and bigs like that are best equipped to play center.
Sengun and Wood are also not mobile enough to defend modern power forwards. In the playoffs, it's hard not to imagine a lineup with both of them starting getting played off the floor and exposed on the defensive end. Frontcourts with fewer holes than this one are already getting played off the floor in these high-leverage moments.
A reason this argument still has some merit is that the sample size of them playing together is relatively small. Sengun also has a knack for finding Wood for some beautiful assists. He also sounds willing to make the duo work, and it's shown the way he cuts when Sengun is in the game. Wood deserves serious credit for that because it would be easy to get annoyed of the shine Sengun's getting.
It's possible I'm wrong and they figure out a way to get into the green as a pairing. I'm willing to eat humble pie about Sengun and Wood if we get to that point.
In the end, the incentives for Houston to move Wood still outweigh the incentives for them to keep him. However, it's only fair to consider the other side in this situation, and there are at least some reasonable arguments to take.
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