Spain and Italy won the opening games of their tournament, setting up one of the top games of the group stages. Italy defeated Spain 4-2 on penalties in their semifinal match at Euro 2020 and also eliminated them in the round of 16 in 2016. The rivals faced off in every Euro knockout stage since 2008, with Spain winning in the final in 2012 and the quarterfinals in 2008. It is time to continue our Euro 2024 odds series with a Spain-Italy prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Spain dominated Croatia in their opening match, scoring three goals in the first half to win 3-0. Fabian Ruiz and Alvaro Morato combined for two in three minutes, while Dani Carvajal volleyed a Lamine Yamal assist to go up 3-0. Yamal is the youngest player in the Euro tournament as a 16-year-old.

Italy got the scare of a lifetime in the game’s opening minute when an errant throw-in by Federico Dimarco put the Albanians on the board off a strike from Nedim Bajrami. The Italians had to be having flashbacks of their past two World Cup qualification failures, but the defending Euro champs rallied to win 2-1. Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella found the scoresheet for Italy.

Here are the 2024 Euros odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2024 Euros Odds: Spain-Italy Odds

Spain: +115

Italy: +260

Draw: +220

Over 2.5 goals: +118

Under 2.5 goals: -144

How to Watch Spain vs. Italy

Time: 3 PM ET/noon PT

TV: FOX, TSN

Stream: (Click Here for Free Trial)

Why Spain Will Win

Spain will try to take advantage of Italy by counterpressing when they lose possession. Italy sits in 22nd for counterattack shots allowed, which could lead Alvaro Morata to plenty of scoring chances. Italy could force Spain into more crosses, which Morata can excel at finishing. Crossing the ball isn’t Spain’s specialty, though, meaning a solid tactical approach by Luciano Spaletti and his staff could slow Spain’s attack.

Spain’s high-powered offense could prove too overwhelming for Italy. They don’t have the best backline, while Spain had 2.51 expected goals per match and 17.8 shots/90 in qualifying.

Why Italy Will Win

One of Spain’s biggest weaknesses is their defensive center backs, leaving them prone to giving up goals off crosses and long balls. It will play right into Italy’s hands, as they prefer to go over the top and use crosses from the flanks.

Italy’s defense is also susceptible to this, but they won’t have that problem against Spain. Spain uses a possession-based style of play, like the games we see in La Liga. Italy’s weakness is that they rank near the bottom in forward pass completion, long-ball completion, and counterattack shots allowed.

Final Spain-Italy Prediction & Pick

The scores of these teams’ opening games don’t tell the full story. Spain used a quick on-slaught to put Croatia behind, a team that doesn’t play well from behind. Meanwhile, Italy dominated the game against Albania in possession and shot attempts. They couldn’t extend the lead to win more convincingly, but they have all the pieces to defend their Euro title.

One issue for Italy is that Gianluca Samacca gives them the best chance at striker, but Luciano Spalletti prefers to play his old striker, Giacoma Raspadori, from his club days. However, that is Spaletti’s only downfall, as he is one of the best tactical managers in the tournament and should have a good game plan to defeat the Spaniards.

The value for Italy is too significant here not to give them a look for the upset victory.

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Final Spain-Italy Prediction & Pick: Italy ML (+260)