Touted as “the next LeBron James,” Ben Simmons burst onto the NBA scene last year, averaging 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. This season, he has his Philadelphia 76ers prominently wedged into the race for the Eastern Conference crown. Boasting a record of 41-24 and currently the fourth seed in the East, the Sixers are in prime position to make a deep playoff run.
But if the Sixers are to truly make a push for the championship, Ben Simmons needs to improve. While his season averages of 17 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 7.9 assists are juicy numbers, there are flaws in his game that will need to be righted for Philadelphia to compete with the elite class of the NBA.
3. Learn how to shoot
Ben Simmons' most glaring weakness has always been his shot. As a player who can defend, rebound, pass, and drive at a high level, the obvious next step in his game would be to develop a jump shot. However, his progression has stalled, as he's well-known throughout the league as a terrible shooter. And for good reason.
This season, 89.6% of all of his shots have come from within ten feet of the basket. And in an NBA era where the 3-point shot is valued more highly than ever, Simmons has yet to make one in his entire career. And he clearly doesn't plan on starting, as he's only taken four 3-point attempts this season.
About a quarter of his shots are taken in transition, with 18-22 seconds left on the shot clock. He ranks third in the NBA in two-pointers made early in the shot clock, and he ranks ninth in the NBA in made buckets in transition. Players like Stephen Curry and James Harden are looking to launch three's early in the shot clock, but Simmons is looking to get to the basket.
And while he's elite as a driver, the lack of any kind of outside shot hurts the team overall. Opponents have figured out that they don't need to be remotely close to Simmons when they're guarding him outside the paint. Defenders will sag off and help elsewhere on the court, making life more difficult for Simmons' talented teammates.
Last year, Boston Celtics coach Brad Stevens exploited Simmons' lack of shooting in the Sixers' playoff series against the Celtics. At times, Stevens put center Al Horford on Simmons, and Horford would sag far off of him. Not needing to stay attached to Simmons left Horford free to help wherever the defense needed it.
https://streamable.com/19ksh
On this play, Horford was sagging low enough to deny the entry pass to Dario Saric. And when Joel Embiid finally got the ball and started to drive, Horford could completely ignore Simmons wandering aimlessly on the perimeter. And instead, Horford shadowed Embiid, ready to help if needed. Simmons, meanwhile, realized his man basically just left him, and tried to get into the paint to take advantage. But all it did was create a spacing mess. Embiid finally had to force up a tough, contested shot.
This season, teams have caught on, and have often employed the “Simmons sag” to contain him. In the Sixers' game against the Portland Trail Blazers, the Blazers employed the sag early and often, as shown as these three plays in the first quarter, which all ended terribly for the 76ers' offense.
https://streamable.com/bmmqo
In the first play, Blazers forward Al-Farouq Aminu sunk down in the lane so far that there's no room to drive for Simmons, who just had the ball poked away instead. In the second play, Maurice Harkless also gave Simmons plenty of room off of an out-of-bounds play, and Simmons was too enticed by the temptation of a jumper. That's a win for the defense every time. On the third play, Harkless again waited for Simmons deep in the paint. Simmons couldn't attack, and settled for a floater that bricked off the front iron.
Simmons isn't going to magically learn how to shoot overnight, and both the Sixers and Simmons probably realize that. But Simmons will have to find some way to overcome the deep sag and loads of space defenders are giving him. That could come in the form of setting a screen for the ball-handler to open up a three, catching Simmons' sagging defender out of position. Or it could come in the form of just not standing right outside the paint on offensive possessions, which Simmons is often caught doing–allowing his defender to help in the key at will.
Whatever the solution, Brett Brown and Simmons need to figure it out if they want Simmons to be effective in the playoffs.
2. Show up in big moments
Star players reveal their character and grit when they finish off a team in the fourth quarter of a tight game, or when they lead their team to a victory over the best teams in the league. Ben Simmons struggles with both.
The NBA defines a “clutch” situation as being within five points with under five minutes to play. In clutch situations, Ben Simmons is seventh on the Sixers in net rating at 0.5. In addition, the Sixers, as a team, are 20th in the league in net rating in clutch situations. Part of that is Simmons' free throw shooting.
A career 57% free-throw shooter, teams are more than eager to put him on the charity stripe with the game on the line. This was never as evident as during a November 2017 game against the Washington Wizards, when they put Simmons on the line for 24 free throws in the fourth quarter, an NBA record.
In clutch situations, Simmons' free-throw percentage decreases, as he's shooting 44% from the line in the clutch. Without an ability to shoot three's and being a horrific free-throw shooter ripe for the fouling, Simmons can be a liability in close-game situations.
In addition, Simmons has not played as well against the better teams in the NBA. Nylon Calculus' DRE (Daily RAPM Estimate) is a metric that measures a player's performance and productivity on a game-by-game basis. About halfway through this season, Simmons had the fourth lowest net DRE when comparing his DRE vs. teams below .500 with his DRE vs. teams above .500. What it revealed was that Simmons played much better feasting on weaker teams and didn't show up as much against the better ones–an attribute the Sixers don't want to see from one of their star players.
Whether free-throw shooting, playing well in the clutch, or raising his level of play against the class of the league, Simmons will need to be prepared to step up for the Sixers before they can have realistic title hopes.
1. Make better decisions
Even with elite athleticism and a high basketball IQ, Simmons can make some questionable decisions on the court. Earlier, it was noted that Simmons gets about a quarter of his points in transition, and that's where he likes to attack. However, Simmons is also 19th in the league in turnover frequency in transition.
Like a runaway freight train, Simmons can get caught in the air or stuck in the paint with nowhere to go. And that almost always leads to a bad pass or a travel.
Coach Nick at BBallBreakdown put together a series of clips of Simmons getting himself into trouble, and it resulted in a turnover each time:
https://streamable.com/wc947
At times, Simmons would drive into the lane as he likes to do, but with nowhere to go, he'd break a cardinal rule of basketball and jump in the air to pass. Just as in the first play in the montage, it resulted in an easy steal for the defense. Other times, Simmons would drive into a traffic jam of defenders in transition, and the ball was easily poked away. Another turnover.
Simmons has to be smarter with his passes and his control of the ball in transition. Currently, Simmons is fourth in the NBA in total turnovers this season, and is averaging 3.6 turnovers per game. The high turnovers could be a reason for Simmons' 1.7 net rating when he's on the court, good for 11th on his own team.
Ben Simmons has the skill set of a superstar. There's a reason he was the consensus number one pick in the 2016 draft. And he's already done wonders teaming up with Joel Embiid and ushering in a new era of 76ers basketball. But to take his game, and the Sixers, to the next level, he'll not necessarily have to play “better,” but he'll need to play smarter.
Simmons has always had most of the raw tools to be the next LeBron James. But until he develops a decent jump shot and learns to play smarter, he'll never take that next step. And neither will the Sixers.
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