Joel Embiid is undoubtedly a great — and possibly dirty — player. But regardless of what you think of Embiid and his play thus far, the Philadelphia 76ers find themselves in a 1-2 hole against the New York Knicks. And the Knicks' winning the minutes in which Embiid is not on the floor is a major reason behind their 2-1 series lead. Granted, Embiid's brilliant performance in game three went a long way toward getting the 76ers back into the series, but New York should still like their chances if they can continue winning those Embiid-less minutes.
Joel Embiid's obvious impact
Embiid's body of work is indisputable. He is a career 27.5 point-per-game scorer, and he averaged a career-high 34.7 points and 11.0 rebounds per game over the course of the 2023-24 season. He's even averaged 37.6 points and8.7 rebounds through the first three games of the NBA Playoffs against the New York Knicks (and their incredibly active and defensive-minded center rotation) despite returning only three or so weeks ago from a 30+ game absence due to a knee procedure that repaired his left meniscus.
Embiid does a lot for his team. He scores and stretches the floor, rebounds, and defends at an elite level. And that is evident in his impact on the game. The plus/minus statistic does a good job of summarizing a player's impact, especially in a playoff series where wins are exponentially important. And while guard Tyrese Maxey appears to be almost as important as Embiid, their respective plus/minus tells a different story.
Embiid posted a team-high +16 in game three. He was one of only two 76ers with a positive plus/minus in game two (with the other being point guard Kyle Lowry). And despite suffering a seven-point loss, Embiid posted a +14 on Saturday night, best on the 76ers. Comparatively, Maxey has an aggregative plus/minus of -3. That's not to say that Maxey isn't great. He simply does not impact that game as much as the reigning MVP.
Philadelphia loses minutes without Embiid
But re-focusing on Embiid, he has posted an aggregate +33 in approximately 115 minutes of action. That's great for Philadelphia — but remember, they are down 2-1. And New York has won the Embiid-less minutes by a 32-point margin. In other words, New York is doing exactly what it needs to do — namely, dominating the minutes in which Embiid is on the bench.
How is New York doing so? Despite outrebounding the 76ers across the board, they rebound the ball even better without Embiid on the floor. But there is something else — without Embiid, the 76ers defense lacks a rim protector. The lane opens up when Embiid is off the floor, and New York capitalizes on it.
New York must do even better than they did in game three, though. Winning the minutes when Embiid is on the bench by five is obviously not enough, as they lost game three by 11. Although, to be fair, Embiid scored 50 points and shot five-for-seven on three pointers. That's unlikely to happen again. So, maybe winning by five could be good enough on most nights.
Can Embiid give the 76ers even more?
Another complexity for Philadelphia and coach Nurse has to do with Embiid's health and ability to play more. Very few players can play every minute of every game. But Embiid and the 76ers are in an especially precarious situation given his recent knee injury.
Do the 76ers want to chance aggravating the injury ? What is the balance for Nurse and the 76ers regarding how much to play him vs. rest him? One positive for Philadelphia in that regard — Embiid hadn't played 40 or more minutes since November 21, which was the only time he did so all season. However, he logged slightly more than 40 minutes in game three and looked perfectly fine doing so (as evidenced by his overall performance).
Ultimately, New York must continue winning the minutes in which Embiid is on the bench. While doing so guarantees nothing, failing to win the Embiid-less minutes is a recipe for disaster. So, keep an eye on how coach Tom Thibodeau responds to the game three loss — and specifically how aggressive he is in attacking Philadelphia when Embiid comes off the floor. It could make or break the series for the Knicks.
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