Over the last four seasons, no team in baseball has won more games (387) than the Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs made three consecutive NLCS appearances from 2015-17, winning their first World Series championship in 108 years in 2016. And yet, the past two seasons have ended in disappointment.
Chicago led the MLB in run differential in the second half of 2017, but the offense went anemic in a five-game loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS. And last season, the Cubs finished with the second-highest total of games with one run or less (trailing only the Baltimore Orioles), failing to get anything going in September and bottoming out in a 2-1 loss to the Colorado Rockies in the NL Wild Card game.
The rest of the National League has improved substantially this offseason, and the NL Central could be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball thanks in part to the additions made by the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds.
And don't forget about the Milwaukee Brewers. The roster from last season's NL Central champs is practically identical, with starter Jimmy Nelson returning to add some depth in the rotation.
However, despite their quiet offseason, the Cubs still offer the best talent in the division.
Here are five reasons for why the North Siders will reclaim the NL Central title in 2019:
1. A healthy–and motivated–Kris Bryant
Kris Bryant ranked third in baseball in terms of fWAR from 2015-17, winning the NL Rookie of the Year and MVP awards on the way.
However, 2018 was much different. Bryant was on pace for another productive season before injuring his shoulder against the Reds in mid-May, a setback that would derail his season. The 27-year-old missed 60 games and hit just .259 in September while striking out in nearly one-third of his plate appearances.
But after his first brush with adversity, Bryant is extremely hungry to return to form:
Bryant:"When you’re not playing you have a whole lot of time to just sit there and either go through a twitter rabbit hole and start seeing things about yourself,or seeing things about ‘trade him’ and this and that.And I’m like ‘Alright.I’m motivated, keep ‘em coming. Bring it’”
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) February 23, 2019
Fans should not take much stock in Spring Training statistics. Still, it worth noting that as of Thursday, Bryant had reached base safely in five of six plate appearances, including a homer in his very first at-bat.
With Bryant looking to return to MVP form and silence his critics–many of whom actually come from the city of Chicago–the Cubs can get back into high-gear alongside improvements from Willson Contreras, the steady presence of Anthony Rizzo and the continued ascension of Javier Baez.
2. Deepest rotation in baseball?
With Yu Darvish looking healthier this Spring, the Cubs have five legitimate arms in the rotation.
Jon Lester's peripherals were somewhat troublesome, but he is one of the best in baseball at adapting and posted a 1.52 ERA in September. Jose Quintana was also better at the end of the season, beating the Brewers twice in September.
Kyle Hendricks was one of the best pitchers in the game in the second half, posting a 2.84 ERA in 14 starts after the All-Star break. And Cole Hamels was rejuvenated in Chicago, forcing the Cubs to pick up his one-year, $20 million option.
When everyone is healthy, this could be the best rotation in the baseball. Hendricks won the ERA title in 2016 and is still in his prime. Quintana has yet to come close to reaching his potential in Chicago, but is hoping that throwing more changeups and establishing his command early in counts will bring him success.
Lester is a bulldog, and Hamels–though due for some regression compared to his second-half numbers in Chicago–should once again be a quality starter.
Darvish is the X-factor. He has recorded at least a 3.7 fWAR in all seasons where he has made at least 20 starts. Can he really stay healthy? After multiple elbow surgeries, it is hard to forecast his durability. But if he regains his effectiveness, this is top-to-bottom the best rotation in the bigs.
3. Added depth in the bullpen
One of the reasons that the Cubs failed to close out the division was due to bullpen fatigue.
Brandon Morrow had a brilliant first half and notched 22 saves, but was shut down after the All-Star break. Steve Cishek threw a career-high 70.1 innings, paying the price in September with a 4.15 ERA.
Pedro Strop's late-season injury against the Nationals forced Joe Maddon to use guys like Brandon Kintzler, who simply could not get the job done.
Despite his talent, Carl Edwards Jr. looked flustered down the stretch and struggled to even command his fastball in the strike zone.
But the Cubs addressed their need for more bullpen arms in the offseason, bringing in Brad Brach, Xavier Cedeno and George Kontos (non-roster invitees).
Chicago will also be glad to see Mike Montgomery return to the bullpen, and may even bring up 37-year-old Luke Hagerty, whose fastball is once again reaching the upper 90s. Randy Rosario also emerged as a quality lefty.
Manager Joe Maddon could not rely on a lot of his guys at the end of the year and was often only comfortable with about a three or four-man rotation of arms in the bullpen. This season, he can test out a number of arms and gain comfort with multiple guys in the middle and late innings.
Getting Morrow back in May shouldn't hurt either.
4. Sense of urgency
Theo Epstein professed as much in his end-of-year presser last season, but everyone will be held accountable this season. There is a feeling that suddenly, the championship window in Chicago is not quite as large as it once seemed.
The rest of the NL Central has improved, and Joe Maddon will head into the season on a one-year contract. From the front office to the players, there is a real “do it now” kind of motivation and feeling that could be as big a factor as any in the Cubs reclaiming the title of division champions.
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