It is a Big 12 battle as Baylor takes on UCF. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Baylor-UCF prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Baylor enters the game at 1-3 on the season. The first game of the season was Baylor being super against Texas State. Texas State controlled much of the game, building an early lead that Baylor would never come back from as they fell 42-31. The next week Baylor faced Utah without Cam Rising. Baylor did have a lead at the half but would fall in that game as well 20-13. They would get their first win of the season against Long Island, but last week in Waco, they were dismantled by Texas. Texas would score four touchdowns in the first half and win 38-6.

Meanwhile, UCF enters the game at 3-1. They took an easy win over Kent State to start the year, before hitting a game-winning field goal as time expired to knock off Boise State. The next week they began playing without their star quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. It was an easy win over Villanova, but missing Plumlee was too much to handle last week. UCF would take their first loss of the season to Kansas State, falling 44-31.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Baylor-UCF Odds

Baylor: +10.5 (-105)

UCF: -10.5 (-115)

Over: 55.5 (-110)

Under: 55.5 (-110)

How to Watch Baylor vs. UCF Week 5

TV: FS1

Stream: Fox Sports App

Time: 3:30 PM ET/ 12:30 PM PT

*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Baylor Will Cover The Spread

Blake Shapen could be back for Baylor in this game, and that would be a major upgrade at quarterback for Baylor. He was hurt in the loss to Texas State but had been playing well. In the game, he completed 21 of 31 passes for 303 yards and two touchdowns. He did not have an interception in the game and protected the ball well. He was sacked twice but made good downfield throws in the face of pressure multiple times. Shapen is not known for his mobility and coming in off a knee injury will force him to make more of those nice throws. Still, he did run one touchdown against Texas State.

If Shapen cannot go it will most likely be Sawyer Robertson. He has thrown for 647 yards this year and a touchdown. While the yardage numbers are solid, he has had some accuracy issues. He is completing under 50 percent of his passes this season and has four interceptions. Robertson has thrown a multitude of turnover-worthy passes this year and struggled more with pressure than Shapen had. He has been sacked six times and has often been off-target when facing pressure this year.

If Shapen does not go, the running backs are going to need to pick up the slack. Baylor has three running backs this year with 28 or more carries. Dominic Richardson leads the way in the backfield, coming into the game with 36 attempts for 160 yards. The bulk of his yards are coming after contact though, and the offensive line will need to do a better job of making holes for him to run through. Meanwhile, Dawson Pendergrass and Richard Reese both have over 125 yards this season and both have scored. Baylor has nearly 600 yards on the ground this year and five scores, but if they struggle to run block, they will have a long day against the UCF front seven.

On defense, it will be about the run defense for Baylor. While they have made 75 stops for offensive failures, they have also missed 30 tackles. Lee Hunter leads the way for the team with 19 tackles and 16 stops. He also has an average depth of tackle 2.2 yards downfield.

Why UCF Will Cover The Spread

With John Rhys Plumlee out, this game will fall to Timmy McClain. On the year he is 37-57 passing for 638 yards. He has five touchdowns and an interception this year. He has made four turnover-worthy passes this year, but overall he is solid. McClain has not been great with pressure though. He has five sacks this year on facing just 22 pressures, which is nearly a 25 percent sacks rate. Still, he has scrambled for positive yards six times this year.

The running game for UCF has been solid this year. RJ Harvey leads the way with 295 yards on 50 attempts. He is getting almost three yards downfield on average before meeting first contact. Harvey has an average of 5.8 yards per carry this year, with five touchdowns and eight runs over ten yards. Meanwhile, Johnny Richardson has 264 yards this year on 37 carries. He has been used as a change of pace back, and done great. He has broken long runs and averages over seven yards per carry this year.

Meanwhile, UCF will look to get a great pass rush to confuse whoever is at quarterback. They have not been great there this year, but good enough. UCF has 63 quarterback pressures, and eight sacks this year. They have been good in coverage though. They have forced ten incompletions this year in coverage while coming away with four interceptions and two dropped interceptions. UCF also has six pass breakups and allowed just two touchdowns in the air. They have a solid defense overall which will make it difficult for Baylor to move the ball.

Final Baylor-UCF Prediction & Pick

UCF is a huge favorite in this game, and it is warranted. Baylor comes out with an inexperienced offense and is missing their top quarterback. They still have a potent offense though. Baylor is 13th in the nation in passing offense even without Shapen. UCF is 37th in pass defense though. Further, UCF can focus on rushing the passer and dropping in coverage. That is because Baylor has one of the worst running attacks in the nation. This is the first Big 12 game at home for UCF, which will also play an impact. Expect plenty of false starts for Baylor, and with long yardage situations, UCF will take advantage. They may be missing their top quarterback, but will score enough to cover in this game.

Final Baylor-UCF Prediction & Pick: UCF -10.5 (-115)