Following up a breakout 2019 season in which he finished third among all wide receivers in yardage and second in fantasy points, Chris Godwin had a somewhat disappointing 2020. Hampered by injuries, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pro Bowler finished at season's end as the WR31 in 12 games played.
However, a look just a little bit beyond the surface shows us that Godwin's production on a per-game basis actually neared WR1 numbers. Among receivers who played at least 10 games, he finished as WR13 on a points per game basis, even ahead of teammate Mike Evans, who felt like the superior receiver in retrospect because of his 1,000 yard, 13-touchdown campaign.
Now that he's shown the world that he can thrive with both risk-happy gunslinger Jameis Winston and the methodical future Hall-of-Famer Tom Brady, Godwin is primed to return to form somewhere between his production from 2019 and 2020. Health permitting, he should easily be able to exceed his current ESPN ADP of 44 (WR17).
Where exactly does a good projection land him, though? Let's take a look.
2020 Fantasy Statistics
Over his 12 games played last year, Godwin amassed 65 receptions on 84 targets for a total of 840 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. Stretched out to a 16 season, those ratios would have seen Godwin put up 86 catches for 1,120 yards and 9 touchdowns. From a fantasy perspective, he offered moderately good consistency, as he put up at least 15 fantasy points in 7 out of 12 games, at least 13 in 9 games, but scored less than 10 in 3 games.
The low-scoring games are to be expected from a receiver who plays in an offense as loaded with talent as the Buccaneers, but he was promisingly the most consistent out of the trio comprised of Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and, of course, Godwin. And it makes sense. Out of the three, Godwin maintains advantages that normally translate into consistency from a fantasy standpoint, with a young body, pristine route-running, and soft hands (more on that later).
Despite Godwin being a disappointment at a high ADP in 2020, he certainly has the potential to a be a steal at ADP now in the upcoming 2021 campaign.
2021 Fantasy Projections
Now in Year 2 with Brady at the helm, a full offseason and preseason to prepare, and a fully healthy trio of deadly wide receivers, the Buccaneers are poised to make yet another run at a title this year. And I believe Chris Godwin will be at the helm in terms of fantasy production between the 3.
As mentioned earlier, Godwin is the guy who, in PPR, offers the best skillset for consistency. He's nowhere near what AB was in his prime, but Godwin, only entering his fifth season, maintains great burst and the full strength of his 4.42 speed and clean route-running that Brown, entering Year 12, has fallen behind at. Godwin also profiles as a much better target between the 20s for Brady than Evans, as Evans is a big-bodied receiver built for shot plays down the field and 50/50 balls in the red zone.
That means Godwin is going to fill the role of Brady's favorite receiver in the intermediate range of the field, where receptions are already made with a decent depth of target, but also have the potential to be broken off for huge gains after the catch. He showed off his true ability to do so in his second full-time season with Jameis Winston as the starter, and I believe he'll be able to do so in his second year with Tom Brady. It took time for Jameis to build the chemistry with Godwin that allowed him to reach a crazy 95.2 yards per game clip, and that same kind of potential is present now with the GOAT at quarterback.
Projection for Chris Godwin: 93 receptions, 1,250 yards, 8 touchdowns
Rank at Position
If Godwin were to meet those projections last season, he would've finished as wide receiver 8 on the season – well above 2020, but well below 2019. He has the talent for even more (WR2 finish in 2019 with two missed games), but with Brown in the fold and Brady not as willing or able to take the downfield shots that Winston did, Godwin is a safe bet to exceed but not blow out his ADP.
He's going well after fellow teammate Mike Evans (WR13 ADP), and the 3 receivers between them are Robert Woods, Amari Cooper, and Adam Thielen. Woods and Cooper seem to offer similar statistical outlooks as Godwin for 2021, but it's hard to see Thielen, the WR2 in a run-heavy offense, outperforming Godwin, the most athletic receiver in a pass-happy offense.
This is the tier where it's hard to find weekly consistency, but Chris Godwin is going to be one of the safest bets to have just that, will a special blend of physical talent, high-end QB play, and beneficial scheme.
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