College Basketball Odds: TCU vs. Baylor prediction, pick

TCU faces Baylor. Our college basketball odds series has our TCU Baylor prediction, odds and pick for Wednesday.

The TCU Horned Frogs take on the Baylor Bears. Our college basketball odds series has our TCU Baylor prediction and pick. Find out how to watch TCU vs Baylor.

This is a highly intriguing game for several reasons. One is that Baylor has been the better, more successful, more established program over the past few years, but TCU might be the better program this season. Baylor won the 2021 national championship and got a No. 1 seed in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. TCU merely got a No. 8 seed in last season's NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs have certainly improved, but Baylor set a standard unto itself. This season, however, Baylor doesn't look anything like the previous few seasons. The Bears are still a good team, but they're not a great team. They have lost three times, and they just lost to Iowa State by 15 in their Big 12 Conference opener. There's a definite sense in and around the Big 12 that Baylor is not going to rise to the very top of the college basketball world this season, and a rugged, deep, balanced league won't allow it to happen.

TCU, meanwhile, is 12-1. It stumbled to Northwestern State early in the season but has found its footing since then. Coach Jamie Dixon has his team on the right track, especially after a tough, come-from-behind win over Texas Tech this past weekend in the Big 12 opener for the Frogs.

Here are the TCU-Baylor college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel:

College Basketball Odds: TCU-Baylor Odds

TCU Horned Frogs: +6.5 (-118)

Baylor Bears: -6.5 (-104)

Over: 144.5 (-110)

Under: 144.5 (-110)

*Watch TCU-Baylor LIVE with fuboTV (Click for free trial)*

Why TCU Could Cover The Spread

Baylor just doesn't have the same imposing quality it had from previous seasons. Matthew Mayer has transferred to Illinois, and he gave the Bears a lot of important baskets over the past two seasons. Not having him in the lineup has really hurt. Baylor scored only 62 points against Iowa State this past weekend. The Bears scored only 33 points in the final 25 minutes and 15 seconds of the game, which is alarmingly bad for coach Scott Drew's team.

Contrast this with TCU, which surged in the second half of its Big 12 opener against Texas Tech and pulled out a quality win. TCU seems to have that “tough to knock out” quality Baylor owned in the past three Big 12 seasons. (In 2020, there was no NCAA Tournament, but Baylor was poised to be a No. 1 seed that year.) Keep in mind that we're talking about covering the spread and not winning outright. It seems genuinely shocking that TCU is getting this many points against Baylor, even on the road.

Why Baylor Could Cover The Spread

You know the Bears are really mad after getting blown out in the second half by Iowa State this past weekend. Iowa State outscored Baylor 43-31 en route to a 15-point win over the Bears. This team has too much pride to take that loss lying down. You're going to see a very passionate and inspired effort by the Bears in this game. Playing at home matters. Road conference games are tough to win in college basketball for any team, even if that team is better or has more talent than its opponent. Baylor-TCU is a matchup of teams which are relatively even in terms of talent. Baylor's home floor is really going to swing this game several points.