The UCLA Bruins are set to face the Arizona Wildcats. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our UCLA Arizona prediction, odds, and pick.
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UCLA hammered Arizona just over a week ago, 75-59. The Bruins smothered Arizona's defense in Pauley Pavilion. This rematch is on Arizona's home floor at the McKale Center, but it will be a challenge for Arizona to author a full reversal of the Jan. 25 game in Westwood. College basketball odds analysts know that while UCLA's Jaylen Clark won't play in this game due to injury, Arizona big man Azuolas Tubelis will carry a sprained ankle into this game and will not be 100-percent healthy. It remains a question as to whether Tubelis can be reasonably effective, which — if true — shifts the UCLA-Arizona odds to the Bruins.
Beyond the Tubelis question, Arizona has to deal with the fact that UCLA had an answer for everything the Wildcats tried to do on offense in late January. The biggest problem posed by UCLA to Arizona is that the Bruins — a Mick Cronin-coached team — love to play at a slow pace and drag opponents into the mud. Arizona loves to play a fast-paced, 94-foot game. UCLA is built to neutralize Arizona's foremost strength. This demands thought from anyone considering a UCLA Arizona pick.
Arizona will need to find a way to get in transition and push the ball before UCLA can set up its halfcourt defense. Even if you are taking the Wildcats in your UCLA Arizona prediction, you know that will be a test for the home team, and a hurdle to be overcome in Tucson against the big, bad Bruins.
Neither team is at full health, but Arizona is banking on desperation and energy — maybe a desire for revenge — as the fuel which can propel the Wildcats to victory in this crucial Pac-12 battle. The winner has the inside track to the conference championship.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the UCLA-Arizona odds:
College Basketball odds: UCLA-Arizona Odds
UCLA: +6.5 (-114)
Arizona: -6.5 (-106)
Over: 148.5 (-110)
Under: 148.5 (-110)
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Why UCLA Could Cover the Spread
The Bruins are designed to limit Arizona's strengths. The Wildcats want a racehorse game played in the 90s or at least the mid-80s. Mick Cronin-coached teams are great at playing games in the 60s or low 70s, and dictating tempo so that a run-and-gun opponent can't get the Ferrari out of the garage. UCLA held Arizona's Kerr Kriisa to an 0-of-12 shooting night on Jan. 25. Bennedict Mathurin led Arizona with 16 points against UCLA, but those 16 points came on 5-of-22 shooting. UCLA's defensive mastery of Arizona was so complete that even if the Bruins don't quite match it but come close, they'll still cover and probably win outright. They won by 16 the first time. They could play slightly worse and still win by four or five points on the road.
Why Arizona Could Cover the Spread
The Wildcats are being doubted by everyone after being eviscerated by UCLA. They know that if they lose here, they'll probably lose the Pac-12 title chase. They'll also be downgraded in the push for a high NCAA Tournament seed. They will fall in the estimation of college basketball odds evaluators. They know this is the defining game of their season. They should play with great energy. If UCLA has an off night, Arizona can bust this game wide open.
Final UCLA-Arizona Prediction & Pick
Arizona is bound to play better than it did on Jan. 25, but the Wildcats lost by 16. They could improve by 22 points and still not cover. For that simple reason, UCLA is the better play. Arizona might win outright, but UCLA has way too much defense to get blown out here.
Final UCLA-Arizona Pick: UCLA +6.5
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