The California Golden Bears take on the USC Trojans. Check out our college football odds series for our California USC prediction and pick.
The USC Trojans are not very healthy right now. They watched star players Eric Gentry, a linebacker, and receiver Jordan Addison get hurt on Oct. 15 against Utah. Neither man played on Oct. 29 versus Arizona, which did not come as a surprise. What was more of a surprise was that offensive lineman Andrew Vorhees did not play against Arizona. That caught a lot of people off guard. Receiver Mario Williams also didn't play, leaving USC without its two best receivers. The Trojans were shaky and mistake-prone in a 45-37 win over Arizona, but they did get the result they needed to maintain their pursuit of a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. If USC wins its next three games, the Trojans will finish 8-1 in the Pac-12 this season, which will likely get them to Las Vegas in December. It's not guaranteed that they'll make the Pac-12 title game, but they would be in very good position if they take care of business in November.
Quarterback Caleb Williams has committed just one turnover this season for a USC offense which has done a tremendous job of protecting the ball. USC's defense missed 20 tackles against Arizona. The Trojans missed a 39-yard field goal. They dropped a touchdown pass. Plenty of mistakes were made. However, turnovers have not been a problem for the Trojans. They have the top turnover differential in the country and are 7-1 through eight games precisely because of their ball security.
Cal is going through a rough season under head coach Justin Wilcox. The Golden Bears lost to Colorado, the worst team in the Pac-12. They are coming off consecutive home-field losses to Washington and Oregon and must now face USC's potent offense. Cal has to find a way to control the ball in this game and keep USC's offense off the field. Cal running back Jaydn Ott rushed for 274 yards in a game earlier this season against Arizona, but USC has a much better defensive line than Arizona does, and Cal's offensive line has gotten a lot worse over the past several weeks. It is widely felt that Wilcox will fire offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave after the regular season. Cal clearly needs something to unlock the potential of its offense, not just for 2022 but for 2023 and beyond.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the California-USC College Football odds.
College Football Odds: California-USC Odds
California Golden Bears: +21.5 (-110)
USC Trojans: -21.5 (-110)
Over: 60.5 (-114)
Under: 60.5 (-106)
Why California Could Cover the Spread
It's a big spread, and with all the injuries USC is carrying this week, it's very easy to imagine USC playing an uneven and unimpressive game in which it wins outright but doesn't crush the Golden Bears. Cal did take Notre Dame to the final play of a September game on the road in South Bend. The Bears might not come that close to beating USC, but they can still keep the game from becoming a total blowout. USC is not at full strength, and that can give Cal the opportunity to control the ball on a few drives while also limiting the big plays the Trojans generate on offense.
Why USC Could Cover the Spread
USC's offense has been extremely consistent this season with the exception of the Oregon State game on Sept. 24. If USC scores 40 points — which it has done regularly in 2022 — Cal is unlikely to score 20 points, which is what it would need to cover the spread.
Final California-USC Prediction & Pick
USC isn't healthy, and Cal is likely to play a very inspired first half. It won't be enough to win the game, but it will be enough to keep the game moderately close on a night when the Trojans won't be fully healthy and won't play to the full height of their capabilities.
Final California-USC Prediction & Pick: California +21.5
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