The Mississippi State Bulldogs are set to face the Auburn Tigers this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Mississippi State-Auburn prediction, odds, and pick.

Mississippi State and Auburn have both pinballed in various directions this season. If you want a clean, linear progression, neither of these teams have satisfied your wishes. Mississippi State won at Texas A&M several weeks ago, a result which looks far better now than it did at the time. MSU throttled a North Carolina State team which is competing for the ACC title and plays Wake Forest in a huge division game this Saturday. Mississippi State also overwhelmed Kentucky's defense. Factor that into a Mississippi State-Auburn pick.

Yet, the same MSU team which notched those accomplishments has also lost at home to LSU, gotten crushed by an Alabama team which hasn't been dominant for most of the year, and stumbled this past weekend versus Arkansas. Will the real Mississippi State team stand up?

It's similar with Auburn. This is why making a Mississippi State-Auburn prediction is so tricky. Auburn very nearly lost at home to Georgia State, but it won on the road at LSU, something the Plainsmen hadn't previously done since 1999. Auburn handled Ole Miss relatively easily but then scored just three points against Texas A&M. Will the real Auburn stand up?

The inconvenient answer is that these teams are both Jekyll and Hyde. It's why the college football odds might not tell the full story here.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the Mississippi State-Auburn odds:

College Football odds: Mississippi State-Auburn Odds

Mississippi State: +4.5 (-106)

Auburn: -4.5 (-114)

Over: 50.5 (-118)

Under: 50.5 (-104)

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Why Mississippi State Could Cover the Spread

The Bulldogs, at their best, are really good. That Texas A&M win in College Station looks better and better. The North Carolina State win was a convincing performance. This team can play. Quarterback Will Rogers completed nearly 100 percent of his passes against Kentucky in one of the best single-game displays by any quarterback this season. When MSU is on, this is a very tough team. 

One also has to realize that Auburn scored just three points last weekend against Texas A&M. That result was the product of a strong Aggie defense coached by coordinator Mike Elko, but also the product of a flawed Auburn offensive line. The Tigers knew coming into 2021 that their offensive front would likely struggle. While the unit has frankly been better than expected (much like Auburn as a complete team has overachieved as well), the A&M game was a bucket of cold water, a dose of reality in the midst of this punishing SEC season.

Why Auburn Could Cover the Spread

The Tigers play good defense. They held Ole Miss and A&M to 20 points, which is a real feat. The defense didn't get any help against A&M, but it remains that coordinator Derek Mason, the former head coach of Vanderbilt, knows how to scheme against SEC offenses. That was an excellent hire by first-year head coach Bryan Harsin which has paid immediate dividends. Mississippi State has a turnover-prone offense. When Will Rogers is not on top of his game, he leaks errors. Auburn's offense might be mediocre, but its defense is well above average and can carry the freight in Week 11.

Final Mississippi State-Auburn Prediction & Pick

Auburn is not a complete team, but its defense merits a lot of trust. Mississippi State could easily win this game, but its defensive front is not as strong as the Texas A&M unit which hammered the Tigers. Auburn will find it easier to move the ball and will do enough to win by a touchdown, 27-20.

Final Mississippi State-Auburn Pick: Auburn -4.5