The TCU Horned Frogs are set to face the Iowa State Cyclones this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our TCU-Iowa State prediction, odds, and pick.

This is a matchup between a team which will make a head coaching change, and a team which hopes it won't have to deal with a coaching change. People who follow college football odds can arrive at that conclusion before making a TCU Iowa State pick.

TCU icon Gary Patterson stepped away from the team earlier this season, bringing an end to a remarkably successful tenure as TCU coach. Patterson led TCU through several conferences — the WAC, the Mountain West, Conference USA, the Big East (for a few minutes), and on to the Big 12 and the Power Five level. He delivered multiple unbeaten regular seasons to TCU. He won the 2011 Rose Bowl with a quarterback you might have heard of: Andy Dalton. He almost reached the first College Football Playoff in 2014 but still won a New Year's Six bowl. He took TCU from nowhere to somewhere, making the Horned Frogs a respected college football power for several years before losing steam in 2018. He will be inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame one day. TCU must find a new coach for him; rumors have centered around SMU coach Sonny Dykes.

Iowa State hopes to retain Matt Campbell, but with the other movements in the coaching carousel — Luke Fickell staying at Cincinnati, James Franklin staying at Penn State, Mel Tucker staying at Michigan State, and Dave Aranda being given a contract offer by Baylor — the buzz surrounding a Campbell move to USC is growing. Campbell hasn't given any direct or indirect indications that he would accept a job offer, but he is in position to accept a job offer from USC if he gets one from Trojan athletic director Mike Bohn. This is undeniably the big talking point in Ames before this game begins. There is more to discuss below when considering a TCU Iowa State prediction.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:

College Football odds: TCU-Iowa State Odds

TCU: +14.5 (-106)

Iowa State: -14.5 (-114)

Over: 60.5 (-112)

Under: 60.5 (-108)

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Why TCU Could Cover the Spread

The Iowa State team which has played so hard for Matt Campbell this year and over the past few years could lose focus, due to the rumors of Campbell's possible departure. That departure is not likely — not until Campbell agrees to accept an outside job offer from USC, or even possibly LSU — but the mere possibility of a change in leadership could be a terrible and overwhelming distraction for Iowa State players. This is part of the calculus when thinking about a TCU Iowa State pick. 

TCU has had a rough season, but if Iowa State is distracted, that might not ultimately matter in the end.

Why Iowa State Could Cover the Spread

The Cyclones are a far better team than TCU. Iowa State very nearly sent Oklahoma to overtime on the road in Norman. TCU got blown out by the Sooners earlier this season. Iowa State beat top-10-ranked Oklahoma State. TCU was handled easily by Mike Gundy's Cowboys. If Iowa State is distracted, it will struggle, but if this team plays with clarity and passion, it should blow TCU out of the water in the regular-season finale for these teams.

Final TCU-Iowa State Prediction & Pick

It comes down to whether you think Iowa State will be distracted or focused. The verdict here: Iowa State will be focused. That's all you need to know.

Final TCU-Iowa State Pick: Iowa State -14.5