The Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles finish their three-game set with a Sunday afternoon getaway day game. The Orioles won the first game of the series 9-2 on Friday night, which is part of a good stretch for Baltimore. The Orioles have won seven of their last ten games. The Mariners are also above .500, but it hasn't been going as well recently, with just a 5-5 record over their past ten. The Orioles are a game back of the Yankees for first in the American League East, while the Mariners lead the West. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mariners-Orioles prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
George Kirby is starting for the Mariners, whose record isn't indicative of how good he's been pitching. The Mariners have won just two of Kirby's last five starts, but Kirby has five earned runs over those 30 innings. Kirby had a rough start to the season, allowing eight and five earned runs in back-to-back games, but has evened out his performances to get back to an acceptable 4-3 record with a 3.58 ERA.
Baltimore hasn't announced their starter yet, but Corbin Burmes will be on regular rest on Sunday, meaning he's likely to get the start. Grayson Rodriguez returned on Saturday and started, meaning Burnes, Cole Irvin, and Dean Kremer are all on regular rest, giving them some hard decisions. Burnes has been the pitcher that the Orioles hoped he'd be when they brought him over in the offseason, pitching into the sixth inning in eight of his nine starts and holding a 2.68 ERA.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mariners-Orioles Odds
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-184)
Moneyline: +120
Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: -142
Over: 7.5 (-102)
Under: 7.5 (-120)
How to Watch Mariners vs. Orioles
Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35 AM PT
TV: RSN, MASN2, MLB Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Mariners Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mariners have a better offense than the Orioles over the last ten games. They are batting .251 with a .307 on-base percentage. Seattle's batting average is .033 points better than the Orioles, which could help them build a lead on Burnes. The Mariners will need Kirby to outduel Burnes and hope their bullpen holds on for the victory.
Why The Orioles Will Cover The Spread/Win
Corbin Burnes has put his team in a position to win every time he's taken the mound this season. He consistently gets into the sixth inning with three or fewer runs allowed. George Kirby has been good for the Mariners recently, but he did have a blowup against the Twins two games ago, allowing four earned runs in five innings. If the Orioles can get to Kirby, the Seattle bullpen has a 6.49 ERA over their last three games.
If you contrast the Seattle bullpen with the Orioles bullpen, you'll see that the Orioles hold a significant advantage. The Orioles bullpen has a 2.84 ERA on the season but an even better 1.80 over the last three games.
Final Mariners-Orioles Prediction & Pick
It's hard to see the Mariners generating enough offense to beat the Orioles in this matchup. They have a sub-optimal matchup with Corbin Burnes and then one of the best bullpens in the league. The Mariners have one of the worst bullpens over the past few weeks, and George Kirby hasn't been getting too far into games before getting pulled. The Mariners may keep this game close, but expect the Orioles to run away with the game in the later innings.
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Final Mariners-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+150)
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