The Duke Blue Devils put their five-game winning streak on the line when they visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in ACC action. The Blue Devils have owned Notre Dame, winning nine of the last ten games. It is time to continue our college basketball odds series with a Duke-Notre Dame prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Duke bounced back from two consecutive losses to win five straight games, highlighted by a win against Baylor. Duke went on the road to Arkansas on November 29th and lost 80-75 as 4.5-point favorites. They were incapable of bouncing back, as they went to Georgia Tech as 12.5-point favorites and dropped a second consecutive game. It was the wake-up call that the Blue Devils needed, as they have won five straight since that loss. Even more impressive is that they have convincingly covered the spread in each. Kyle Filipowski is leading the Blue Devils, averaging 17.5 points and 8.7 rebounds per game.
Notre Dame shocked everyone on December 30th when they beat Virginia by 22 points as 9.5-point underdogs. They had an unsurprising letdown spot when they lost 54-52 to North Carolina State in the following game. However, the Virginia game showed it won't be easy to visit Purcell Pavilion and secure a victory. Markus Burton is the only player on the team averaging double-digits in points with 16.1 per game. Burton is also the only player averaging more than 30 minutes per game. Notre Dame will hope to turn it around, as they have lost nine of their last ten against Duke, but more importantly for us, have failed to cover in eight of ten.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Duke-Notre Dame Odds
Duke: -12.5 (-106)
Moneyline: (-850)
Notre Dame: +12.5 (-115)
Moneyline: (+570)
Over: 133.5 (-110)
Under: 133.5 (-110)
How to Watch Duke vs. Notre Dame
Time: 6 PM ET/3 PM PT
TV: ACC Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Duke Will Cover The Spread
Notre Dame has won games and kept others close by playing shutdown defensive basketball. The issue for Notre Dame is that their numbers are skewed by playing below-average offensive teams. Their defense has been unable to win them games due to their offense not giving enough support. Notre Dame's big win over Virginia shows that the Fighting Irish can shut down teams that don't have a good offense. However, that won't be the case when they face Duke. Duke is 30th in the nation with 83.5 points per game.
Notre Dame will have issues taking on the Duke defense. Notre Dame averages 62.8 points per game, which ranks them 354th in the country. Duke's defense has been above-average this season, allowing 66.6 points per game. Notre Dame may be able to shut down Duke's offense better than any other team this season, but there's no way their offense can keep up. It will take their best defensive effort of the season and a heroic performance from Markus Burton.
Why Notre Dame Will Cover The Spread
Can Notre Dame's defense keep the game close enough for Notre Dame to cover the spread? Notre Dame covered in two straight games as underdogs. One of those in a 22-point outright win over Virginia as 9.5-point underdogs. Notre Dame had a rough stretch before the Virginia game, where they lost to Citadel and Georgetown as favorites and to Marquette by 19 points. So, you have to decide whether the win over Virginia was a sign that things are turning around or just one good game.
Notre Dame's defense can force difficult shots and give Duke some difficulties. Duke ranks 225th in offensive rebounds per game, which can help Notre Dame get the ball back in their hands and keep the game close. Notre Dame will slow the game down, as they average just 67.1 possessions per game. This is only six more than Davidson, who has the fewest possessions per game in Division I.
Notre Dame has kept games close as the underdog, covering the spread in five of seven games.
Final Duke-Notre Dame Prediction & Pick
During their five-game winning streak, Duke's lowest point total was 78. They are averaging 87.8 points per game over that span, which blows away Notre Dame's average of 60.2 over their last five. Notre Dame can lower Duke's offensive output in this matchup, but will they be able to score enough to cover the spread? The chances of that are unlikely, as they have one of the worst offensive teams in the country and one of the slowest paces.
The good thing about a 12.5-point spread and a slow-paced underdog is that they don't have to play outstanding to get within the number. Notre Dame has shown that their pace is conducive to covering spreads, as they covered in five of seven games as underdogs this season. Expect Notre Dame to keep this game close at home and stay within the 12.5 number.
Final Duke-Notre Dame Prediction & Pick: Notre Dame +12.5 (-115)
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