The Indianapolis Colts were blindsided last weekend when Andrew Luck suddenly announced his retirement, a crushing blow to the Colts' Super Bowl hopes for the 2019 NFL season.
Yes, the Colts still have the entirely competent Jacoby Brissett to step in under center, but Brissett isn't Luck, and, as a result, Indianapolis' championship aspirations have been all but dashed.
Still, the Colts should be able to at least contend for a playoff spot, as they have enough talent up and down the roster to be a respectable team even without Luck.
So, here are five bold predictions for Indianapolis heading into 2019:
5. The Colts will be a Top-15 Defense Again
For all of the talk about how shaky the Colts' defense is, they actually ranked 11th in total defense and 10th in points allowed in 2018, and they added Justin Houston this offseason.
So, maybe Indianapolis won't have so many problems on defense after all?
I get it: we are used to the Colts being a bad defensive team. That has mostly been the case ever since the Peyton Manning years, but with young studs like Darius Leonard and Malik Hooker, not to mention the addition of Houston, Indy should, at least, be a top-15 defense in the NFL in 2019, and a legitimate argument can be made that it should be in the top 10.
If the Colts end up not making the playoffs, we probably won't be able to pin the blame solely on the defense.
4. Marlon Mack will Rush for Over 1,000 Yards
It seemed likely that Marlon Mack would rush for over 1,000 yards even with Luck under center, as he racked up 908 yards while missing a couple of games last year.
But now that Luck is out and Brissett is in? The Colts will almost surely run the ball more, which means that Mack is almost a lock for over 1,000 yards so long as he stays healthy.
As a matter of fact, Mack seems to be a sleeper candidate to lead the NFL in rushing, especially if Ezekiel Elliott ends up sitting out part (or all) of the season due to his contract dispute with the Dallas Cowboys.
Look for Indianapolis to lean on Mack heavily in 2019.
3. Darius Leonard will Challenge for Defensive Player of the Year
How Leonard didn't make the Pro Bowl in 2018 after registering a league-leading 163 tackles to go along with seven sacks, a couple of interceptions, four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and eight passes defended is mind-boggling.
He did, however, win Defensive Rookie of the Year, and this season, he should challenge for the Defensive Player of the Year award as long as he avoids injury.
Think about it: Leonard posted those numbers as a rookie. That is absolutely insane, and while it's entirely possible that he may never match that absurd overall production again, chances are, he will at least come close to it and will be an extremely impactful player throughout his career.
Now that Leonard has put himself on the map, he has likely earned some respect around the league, and voters will be watching him throughout the season as a result.
2. Jacoby Brissett will be Similar to Teddy Bridgewater
Remember when Teddy Bridgewater was the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings in 2014 and 2015? He didn't put up big numbers, but he managed the game well, made a Pro Bowl appearance and led the Vikings to an 11-win season in 2015.
That's the type of production I am expecting from Brissett in 2019, but with perhaps less team success.
If you look at Brissett's numbers as Indy's starter with Luck sidelined in 2017, they are very similar to Bridgewater's stats in 2014 and 2015. Not a whole lot of yards and touchdowns, but he took decent care of the football and showed some mobility.
We could go as far to liken Brissett to Dak Prescott, who threw 23 touchdowns and just four picks during his rookie year, but I think Bridgewater is a more apt comparison.
Brissett will take his lumps, but he will be serviceable and will at least give the Colts chances to win games.
1. The Colts will Miss the Playoffs
It's crazy how quickly Indianapolis went from a bona fide Super Bowl contender to a fringe playoff team, and yet, here we are.
The Colts still have an outside shot of making the postseason, as, again, they do have talent on both sides of the ball, and there is some experience here after last year, but in such a deep AFC, it's going to be tough.
Indy's best shot will probably be winning the AFC South, as that division is still very winnable for the Colts even with Luck sidelined. The Houston Texans look vulnerable with Lamar Miller done for the year and Jadeveon Clowney potentially on the move, and both the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars have major questions at quarterback just like the Colts do.
It's entirely possible that nine wins ends up winning the AFC South, and that is doable for Indianapolis, but I just don't see it happening.
I think the Colts will hang around, but ultimately, at least one team in their division will best them.
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