UFC 301: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg continues on the prelims with a fight in the lightweight division between Ismael Bonfim and Vinc Pichel. Bonfim had to withdraw from his last scheduled fight after egregiously missing weight meanwhile, Pichel did not accept his opponent's weight miss and declined to fight in his most recent bout. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Bonfim-Pichel prediction and pick.

Ismael Bonfim (19-4) egregiously missed weight in his first crack at fighting Vinc Pichel at UFC Fight Night back in November 2023. Before that fight cancelation Bonfim came off his first loss inside the Octagon against Benoit Saint-Denis. Now, Bonfim will look to get his weight in check when he finally gets to square off against Pichel this weekend at UFC 301.

Vinc Pichel (14-3) decided to decline to fight Bonfim who came in 3.5 lbs over the 156 lbs limit for their UFC Fight Night bout. He believed that Bonfim should be punished by not agreeing to fight him for being unprofessional for not making the contracted weight. Now, Pichel is hoping to finally get locked inside the Octagon with Bonfim get after it, and get himself back into the win column this weekend at UFC 301.

Here are the UFC 301 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

UFC 301 Odds: Ismael Bonfim-Vinc Pichel Odds

Ismael Bonfim: -550

Vinc Pichel: +400

Over 1.5 rounds: -250

Under 1.5 rounds: +200

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Why Ismael Bonfim Will Win

Ismael Bonfim suffered his first defeat inside the Octagon when he was submitted by rising lightweight contender Benoit Saint-Denis in the second round. He then tried to square off against Vinc Pichel in a UFC Fight Night event only to egregiously miss weight by 3.5 lbs where Pichel decided to decline the fight not giving Bonfim that advantage of not having to make the contracted weight. Now, they are finally slated to face off again (hopefully) when they get locked inside the Octagon this weekend at UFC 301.

Bonfim was a massive favorite in their first encounter and it's no different here and now he gets the honor of possibly having biased judging fighting in front of his home crowd in Brazil. Bonfim is a very well-rounded fighter with finishes both on the feet (9 knockouts) and on the mat (4 submissions) giving him the ability to finish this fight wherever it takes place. While his background is in boxing, he can certainly utilize his grappling to advantage when it seems fit to the occasion.

In this fight, while Pichel is tough as nails and is hard to put away on the feet, Bonfim shouldn't have any issues outstriking Pichel at a distance with his crisp boxing combinations. We saw what Bonfim can do on the feet with his knockout of Terrance McKinney in his UFC debut and his work on the Contender Series. If Bonfim can avoid letting Pichel take him down to the mat he should be able to keep Pichel at bay and outstrike him to a wide decision victory.

Why Vinc Pichel Will Win

Vinc Pichel did not agree with the UFC and the athletic commission allowing Bonfim to continue to fight after missing weight by almost four pounds. He decided to forgo the percentage of Bonfim's purse he would have gotten for fighting him to teach him a lesson that he needs to come in on weight and be a professional. Now, Pichel is coming off a loss to Mark Madsen in his last fight back in April 2022. He hasn't stepped inside the Octagon in 25 months and he hasn't won a fight in almost three years as he looks to turn back time and get himself back on track when he takes on Ismael Bonfim this weekend at UFC 301.

Pichel is as tough as they come as he's only been finished twice in his 17-fight professional career. Even at age 41, Pichel is no slouch and will not be a pushover regardless of the odds in this fight against Bonfim. He is at his best when he's able to push the pace and be the aggressor putting his opponent on their backfoot. From there he can land his heavy shots to get on the inside and utilize his grappling to take the fight to the mat and punish his opponents there. While Pichel has no submissions on his record, it doesn't use his grappling to submit his opponents but for ground-and-pound purposes which will be the key to success in this matchup. If Pichel can avoid having a kickboxing match with Bonfim and make this a dirty and grinding type of fight he can score the monumental upset in this fight

Final Ismael Bonfim-Vinc Pichel Prediction & Pick

This should be a great scrap between these two lightweights. Bonfim will be looking to keep this fight away from the cage and off the mat meanwhile, Pichel will want to get on the inside and utilize his grappling and clinch work to get himself back into the win column. Ultimately, the speed and footwork of Bonfim along with his crisp combinations is seemingly too much for the 41-year-old Vinc Pichel at this stage of his career as he just gets outstruck for the majority of the fight en route for a Bonfim decision victory.

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Final Ismael Bonfim-Vinc Pichel Prediction & Pick: Ismael Bonfim (-550), Over 1.5 Rounds (-250)