The Denver Broncos did not have the 2022 season that they were hoping for, and on an individual level, that was also true for budding star running back Javonte Williams. After a breakout rookie campaign that saw him snatch away the starting running back job from Melvin Gordon, Williams tore his ACL in Week 4 of the season, putting a screeching halt on his rapid development.
Williams was supposed to be a key piece to Denver's superstar-laden offense last year, but he struggled during his time on the field, and then ended up missing most of the season. The Broncos will be looking to put things together after an awful 2022 campaign, and Williams will likely play a big role in that.
For fantasy football owners, Williams' injury-shortened 2022 season will likely leave a bad taste in the mouths of those who drafted him, and were promptly burned by his injury. There are tons of question marks surrounding Williams' fantasy football status, so let's take a closer look at those questions and see what fantasy owners should expect from Denver's top running back in 2023.
Javonte Williams' 2023 Fantasy Football outlook
Williams burst onto the scene in 2021 when he ended up outproducing Gordon while working out of a backup role (203 CAR, 903 YDS, 4 TD, 43 REC, 316 YDS, 3 TD), proving himself to be one of the best young running backs in the game. With Gordon gone and Williams taking over as the lead running back, many fantasy owners were high on his potential to be a breakout star in 2022.
Of course, that didn't end up happening. Williams turned in a few meager fantasy outings before suffering his ACL injury, and his numbers on the season (47 CAR, 204 YDS, 16 REC, 76 YDS) made him one of the biggest busts of the year in fantasy football. Of course, his injury played a big role in that, but Williams' stock is way down after his tough 2022 campaign.
Heading into 2023, Williams is one of the biggest question marks in fantasy football. His ceiling is outrageously high, as he should reclaim his role as Denver's lead running back, and he has the opportunity to produce at an extremely high level in that role. Williams proved he can make an impact as a receiver as well as a runner, which obviously helps in fantasy football, especially in PPR leagues.
The problem is that the questions surrounding Williams go beyond him. Obviously, returning from a torn ACL is going to be tough, and if Williams is ready to go for Week 1, chances are he is going to be eased back into the action. Williams' overall effectiveness may be down, but even if it isn't, it will likely take some time for him to get back up to full speed.
But even then, there's no guarantee that Denver's offense is going to be able to produce in 2023. The Russell Wilson-era got off to a horrific start last year, as they simply could not move the ball. Williams could help that, but if the offense struggles again, that will almost certainly cut into his production. The uncertainty with the team, combined with Williams' own injury uncertainty, makes him a risky investment.
There's no doubt that Williams has a high ceiling; the question is whether he can reach that ceiling in 2023. The hype surrounding Williams from last year doesn't exist currently, though, which could make him a sneaky good high-value pick if he falls during the draft. This guy, after all, looked like a star in the making before his injury last year.
Pinning Williams to be a Week 1 starter in your fantasy lineups isn't a good idea. He may not be available, and even if he is, he won't be producing at 100 percent. However, grabbing Williams in the mid-to-late rounds could end up being one of the best value picks in the entire draft. Williams has an RB1 ceiling, so if he produces like he did during his rookie season midway through the year, stashing him could be a fantastic move.
Taking Williams too high could leave you getting burned, so it's best to be cautious when it comes to picking him at the right time. For the most part, he will likely come off the board in rounds seven-through-nine in your typical ten-team PPR league, with the end of the eighth round to the beginning of the ninth-round being the green light spot to nab him.
If Williams is falling down the board and is available around this timeframe, he is a great player to invest in who could have a huge return at some point later in the season. It may not be an immediate win, but Williams has the potential to be a fantastic pick for fantasy owners in 2023. However, gauging the right time to add Williams in the draft will be crucial, and there are too many question marks surrounding him to get totally hyped about his fantasy outlook right now.
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